Where's Bin Ladin?

[Pete]

Originally Posted by LongRange27

To Pete and all QP's about the above link: ...Don't you think it is possible one of bin Laden's lieutenants told him to stop producing visual videos because our MSM leaked the fact that our intel agencies use scientists to examine the terrain behind him to determine his location? Just a thought...

Hard to get data on a guy sitting behind a desk with a sheet behind him.

Remember - the last IIRC video was him behind a desk and that yellowish sheet behind him? That was the video where the picture stopped while the talking continued.

[civilian]

Originally Posted by LongRange27

We weren't always bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan.

You think Iran harbored him after Tora Bora, well that's 2002, and we weren't in Iraq. I don't know how good your geography is, but all we would have to do is push west from Afghanistan and topple Tehran.

The radical Ahmadinejad wasn't president then. And he doesn't even make those kinds of decisions to harbor bin Laden, the Supreme Leader does. The risk is far greater than the reward for Iran. They like him alive because he is a thorn in our side, but they are not going to put their population at risk for him.

To Pete and all QP's about the above link:

Don't you think it is possible one of bin Laden's lieutenants told him to stop producing visual videos because our MSM leaked the fact that our intel agencies use scientists to examine the terrain behind him to determine his location? Just a thought...

You missed the point. Didn't say we were bogged down but rather our guys a busy doing their jobs right now doing multiple tours. The point is that we don't have the resources nor the political will to launch an invasion of Iran. Joint Chiefs would bauk at any suggestion. Therefore, it has nothing to do with geography and pushing west. You don't push west against a country like Iran. That would require a lot and would only unite the Iranians more. We could have pushed in Nam too but there wasn't the political will. Regardless, the world won't back our play to invade OBL because they wouldn't extradict him. Didn't say he went to Iran right after Tor Bora. Obviously he wentto Pakistan and who knows how long he stayed there before it got too hot there. Ahmadinejad wouldn't be in the know of such a operation of a military/national security nature. Also If he is not in Iran then where is he? Was he not in the video days before the 2004 election before Bush and kerry. How are they making the voice tapes? And yes they can put OBL in front of a desk with a sheet behind him to be careful not to underestimate their enemy either. regardless, the audio tapes seem to be too specific to world events. I just have heard a good theory of how they are doing these tapes.

[LR27]

Originally Posted by civilian

You missed the point. Didn't say we were bogged down but rather our guys a busy doing their jobs right now doing multiple tours. The point is that we don't have the resources nor the political will to launch an invasion of Iran. Joint Chiefs would bauk at any suggestion. Therefore, it has nothing to do with geography and pushing west. You don't push west against a country like Iran. That would require a lot and would only unite the Iranians more. We could have pushed in Nam too but there wasn't the political will. Regardless, the world won't back our play to invade OBL because they wouldn't extradict him. Didn't say he went to Iran right after Tor Bora. Obviously he wentto Pakistan and who knows how long he stayed there before it got too hot there. Ahmadinejad wouldn't be in the know of such a operation of a military/national security nature. Also If he is not in Iran then where is he? Was he not in the video days before the 2004 election before Bush and kerry. How are they making the voice tapes? And yes they can put OBL in front of a desk with a sheet behind him to be careful not to underestimate their enemy either. regardless, the audio tapes seem to be too specific to world events. I just have heard a good theory of how they are doing these tapes.

I'm not missing your point, you're missing mine. Of course the Joint Chiefs and Congress would have a fit if we tried to invade Iran right now. But if we had intel that bin Laden was in Iran before we hit Iraq, I guarantee everybody and their brother would have been down to turn Tehran into a dustbowl.

You're throwing ideas out, but you aren't backing it up with any real evidence or even theory. If Ahmadinejad didn't know about harboring bin Laden, do you know who would be responsible for such an operation? The Quds. They are Iran's version of SF/CIA types, and they are not going to defy their government and take the political risks of harboring the most wanted man in the world. Despite how much trash Iran talks, they do not want to be invaded. It is simply a power play to put themselves in the spotlight and show the rest of the Middle East that since Saddam is gone, Iran is the strongest country in the region now, which they are.

In my opinion, bin Laden is moving to and from secure locations in the NWFP, North and South Waziristan, and Peshawar, Pakistan. Our spying capabilities our extremely limited in those areas, especially with him on the move. Obviously, you didn't read the article I posted.

This is where I think he is: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/ma...akistan-t.html

[Team Sergeant]

Originally Posted by LongRange27

I'm not missing your point, you're missing mine. Of course the Joint Chiefs and Congress would have a fit if we tried to invade Iran right now. But if we had intel that bin Laden was in Iran before we hit Iraq, I guarantee everybody and their brother would have been down to turn Tehran into a dustbowl.

You're throwing ideas out, but you aren't backing it up with any real evidence or even theory. If Ahmadinejad didn't know about harboring bin Laden, do you know who would be responsible for such an operation? The Quds. They are Iran's version of SF/CIA types, and they are not going to defy their government and take the political risks of harboring the most wanted man in the world. Despite how much trash Iran talks, they do not want to be invaded. It is simply a power play to put themselves in the spotlight and show the rest of the Middle East that since Saddam is gone, Iran is the strongest country in the region now, which they are.

In my opinion, bin Laden is moving to and from secure locations in the NWFP, North and South Waziristan, and Peshawar, Pakistan. Our spying capabilities our extremely limited in those areas, especially with him on the move. Obviously, you didn't read the article I posted.

This is where I think he is: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/ma...akistan-t.html

LongRange27,

Do me (and the other SF'ers) a favor and quit quoting the NYT's, its about as credible as the National Enquirer.

Team Sergeant

[civilian]

Originally Posted by LongRange27

I'm not missing your point, you're missing mine. Of course the Joint Chiefs and Congress would have a fit if we tried to invade Iran right now. But if we had intel that bin Laden was in Iran before we hit Iraq, I guarantee everybody and their brother would have been down to turn Tehran into a dustbowl.

You're throwing ideas out, but you aren't backing it up with any real evidence or even theory. If Ahmadinejad didn't know about harboring bin Laden, do you know who would be responsible for such an operation? The Quds. They are Iran's version of SF/CIA types, and they are not going to defy their government and take the political risks of harboring the most wanted man in the world. Despite how much trash Iran talks, they do not want to be invaded. It is simply a power play to put themselves in the spotlight and show the rest of the Middle East that since Saddam is gone, Iran is the strongest country in the region now, which they are.

In my opinion, bin Laden is moving to and from secure locations in the NWFP, North and South Waziristan, and Peshawar, Pakistan. Our spying capabilities our extremely limited in those areas, especially with him on the move. Obviously, you didn't read the article I posted.

This is where I think he is: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/ma...akistan-t.html

The premise of the question of this thread pertains to where OBL is now. I have read from more reputable sources than the NYT that elements of Al Qaeda where allowed to go into Iran after we went into Afghanistan. Even if he went into Iran soon after 9/11, there was no way we were going into Iran. There was a big difference in being able to go into Afghanistan, which had a history of being a brutal failed state and hosting the OBL gang for years and Iraq, which had dozens of UN resolutions against them and the intelligence pointed to them having an aggressive interests in WMDs which was just enough to get Congress and some of our allies to support it. You might be over estimating Ahmadinejad's power as well as his control over their military and covert operations.

Regardless, the question in where is OBL. I say if he is not dead then he could very well be in Iran considering the close proximity and that they are the only country in the Middle East in a position to do so. Iran fears Israel more than us.
You suggest he is still in the Waziristan/Peshawar region. He very well could be and that is a very educated and reasonable suggestion. However, I think he knows very well we would not hesitate to strike him by either air or land if we found out where he was in that area or anywhere in Pakistan. Some reported 30 or so air strikes and possible a few black helicopters being inserted on that side of the fence since Aug 2008 make that a hot AO in my opinion. I don't think he has the balls to risk staying there but you could certainly be correct.

[LR27]

Originally Posted by Team Sergeant

LongRange27,

Do me (and the other SF'ers) a favor and quit quoting the NYT's, its about as credible as the National Enquirer.

Team Sergeant

Roger, I'll find other sources.

[LR27]

Originally Posted by civilian

Some reported 30 or so air strikes and possible a few black helicopters being inserted on that side of the fence since Aug 2008 make that a hot AO in my opinion. I don't think he has the balls to risk staying there but you could certainly be correct.

Those black helicopters only cross that border and go after people that are worth the political risk. I'm sure it happens more than we hear about, but not that often.

In the past year, several Afghani's have been killed in the NWFP by local Taliban for spying for America. The ISI and Pakistani military doesn't let our intel folks wander too far from their hip, and its really hard to penetrate some of those areas without being made as a foreigner. So really, he could be hiding up in those hills and we would never know it.

Just my thoughts and opinions... feel free to critique.

[civilian]

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http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv..._coordinat.php



Osama’s son coordinates call between Zawahiri and Iran’s Qods Force
By BILL ROGGIOJanuary 17, 2009 1:05 AM
Osama bin Laden’s son coordinated communications between al Qaeda’s second in command and Iran’s Qods Force, according to Mike McConnell , the outgoing Director of National Intelligence.

Sa’ad bin Laden facilitated communications between Ayman al Zawahiri and Qods Force, the notorious special operations branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, in September 2008 after the deadly attack on the US embassy in Yemen.

Sa’ad entered Pakistan’s northwest to meet with Zawahiri in Pakistan sometime in early September, McConnell claimed. Sa’ad’s whereabout is currently unknown but he is still thought to be with al Qaeda’s senior leadership inside Pakistan. Sa’ad, his brother Hamza, and other senior al Qaeda leaders are known to routinely travel back and forth between Iran and Pakistan.

Long Wire posted this on another thread and I think it helps support my opinion that Bin Laden has been in Iran eating McRib pork sandwiches all along since Tora Bora. The Wall Street Journal reported that Mike McConnell, the outgoing Director of National Intelligence, believes we have intel that Al Qaeda still has ongoing communications with Iran Qods Force as recent as Sept 2008. I think there maybe more to the story, like the possibility of Bin Laden's son passing love notes, old copies of Play Girl mags and audio tapes from Bin Laden in Iran to Zawahiri in Pakistan. I think its obvious Bin Laden and Zawahiri have not been together for years, which is evidenced by the lack of both of them appearing together in tapes. Of course, if Bin Laden is dead that may well explain why. However, I think he is in a compound receiving medical care in Iran and his movements and communications are greatly restricted thus the audio and no video.

[LR27]

Originally Posted by civilian

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http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv..._coordinat.php



Osama’s son coordinates call between Zawahiri and Iran’s Qods Force
By BILL ROGGIOJanuary 17, 2009 1:05 AM
Osama bin Laden’s son coordinated communications between al Qaeda’s second in command and Iran’s Qods Force, according to Mike McConnell , the outgoing Director of National Intelligence.

Sa’ad bin Laden facilitated communications between Ayman al Zawahiri and Qods Force, the notorious special operations branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, in September 2008 after the deadly attack on the US embassy in Yemen.

Sa’ad entered Pakistan’s northwest to meet with Zawahiri in Pakistan sometime in early September, McConnell claimed. Sa’ad’s whereabout is currently unknown but he is still thought to be with al Qaeda’s senior leadership inside Pakistan. Sa’ad, his brother Hamza, and other senior al Qaeda leaders are known to routinely travel back and forth between Iran and Pakistan.

Long Wire posted this on another thread and I think it helps support my opinion that Bin Laden has been in Iran eating McRib pork sandwiches all along since Tora Bora. The Wall Street Journal reported that Mike McConnell, the outgoing Director of National Intelligence, believes we have intel that Al Qaeda still has ongoing communications with Iran Qods Force as recent as Sept 2008. I think there maybe more to the story, like the possibility of Bin Laden's son passing love notes, old copies of Play Girl mags and audio tapes from Bin Laden in Iran to Zawahiri in Pakistan. I think its obvious Bin Laden and Zawahiri have not been together for years, which is evidenced by the lack of both of them appearing together in tapes. Of course, if Bin Laden is dead that may well explain why. However, I think he is in a compound receiving medical care in Iran and his movements and communications are greatly restricted thus the audio and no video.

I saw that article a couple days ago and knew it would end up on here.

I don't refute that the Quds leadership and Al-Qaeda maintain contact. I just don't think bin Laden is in Iran. Also, I don't think it would be safe for him there. He may have a small group of individuals that support him such as the Quds, but the majority of the population disagrees with murdering innocent civilians in the name of Allah. I think someone would tip us off, because our ear is definitely close to the ground in Iran right now for a multitude of reasons.

I think a great point for my argument is that Zawahiri has practically been confirmed as taking refuge in Pakistan. If he feels safe there, why wouldn't bin Laden? I think they are both sipping chai with ISI operatives in some mud walled compound northwest of Peshawar.

[LR27]

Interesting article...

Does Iran Harbor Osama bin Laden?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-rac..._b_182026.html

[Richard]

Anybody look to see who's in Lenin's Tomb lately? Them Russkies are a sneaky buncha bastards and - unlike the Iranians, Iraqis, Pakis, any of them Stans, polecatus washintonium, and the NYT - will lie to ya in a heartbeat.

Richard's $.02

[LR27]

Originally Posted by Richard

Anybody look to see who's in Lenin's Tomb lately? Them Russkies are a sneaky buncha bastards and - unlike the Iranians, Iraqis, Pakis, any of them Stans, polecatus washintonium, and the NYT - will lie to ya in a heartbeat.

Richard's $.02

Very true. The source has no real credibility, but it is an interesting lead that is worth looking into, IMO.

[longrange1947]

Longrange27 - If source is not credible, then why would it be worth looking into?

If you are going to use half of my name, then spend at least half your time investigating through serious sites. Huffington is laughable.

[DinDinA-2]

Perhpaps it is due to my aging brain...but it would be much easier to follow who is who if Longrange27 would change his name.

How about it? This is not the first time this has come to mind.

[Team Sergeant]

Originally Posted by longrange1947

Longrange27 - If source is not credible, then why would it be worth looking into?

If you are going to use half of my name, then spend at least half your time investigating through serious sites. Huffington is laughable.

I agree with Longrange1947, NYT, huffington, what next "national inquirer" "enquirer" "people" & MTV for news ????

Longrange27, you're reading all the same crap the madonna, george clooney and paris hilton read each morning.

I think it's time for a name change..... pick one and PM me.

Team Sergeant