Chavez Urges FARC to end struggle....what?

[D9 (RIP)]

Originally Posted by FILO

No , IMO Chavez will continue to sponsor FARC, just more covert. Also FARC will be around another 4 plus decades in some form or another.

Maybe. The Ku Klux Klan is around today in the US but instead of the 5 million member centrally controlled organization it once was, it is various bubbas in their garages who for the most part can't kick their meth habits, much less organize a cross-burning. Even if Chavez does continue his sponsorship, and I don't disagree that he will, he will have to make it less overt and this can ONLY pay dividends.

I see fragmentation and decentralization in the near (5 yr) future for the FARC. I could be wrong. But I think it will go this way and independently they will be marginalized and picked off by the gov't - assuming a Uribe style gov persists there. I'm not sure SECDEF Santos will be up to the task but we'll see. I'm personally hoping the "World Democracy" crowd gets shocked and Uribe pulls a third term.

The problem with a decentralized FARC is that the groups that are the strongest, in the South and East (coca territory), have not been the groups suffering the setbacks recently experienced on the various fronts. Karina and Rios were from Antioquia and this has been a traditionally less friendly and profitable area for the G. We'll see if the limited successes against Southern and Eastern fronts can be improved upon with fragmentation, but at this point I see fragmentation as an inevitability.

[FILO]

Originally Posted by D9

Maybe. The Ku Klux Klan is around today in the US but instead of the 5 million member centrally controlled organization it once was, it is various bubbas in their garages who for the most part can't kick their meth habits, much less organize a cross-burning. Even if Chavez does continue his sponsorship, and I don't disagree that he will, he will have to make it less overt and this can ONLY pay dividends.

I see fragmentation and decentralization in the near (5 yr) future for the FARC. I could be wrong. But I think it will go this way and independently they will be marginalized and picked off by the gov't - assuming a Uribe style gov persists there. I'm not sure SECDEF Santos will be up to the task but we'll see. I'm personally hoping the "World Democracy" crowd gets shocked and Uribe pulls a third term.

The problem with a decentralized FARC is that the groups that are the strongest, in the South and East (coca territory), have not been the groups suffering the setbacks recently experienced on the various fronts. Karina and Rios were from Antioquia and this has been a traditionally less friendly and profitable area for the G. We'll see if the limited successes against Southern and Eastern fronts can be improved upon with fragmentation, but at this point I see fragmentation as an inevitability.

Chavez will continue to provide FARC with the most militarily significant resource; a safe haven where it's troops can R&R and train without COL MIL interference.

Historically FARC has operated in a decentralized manner and in fact, it wasn't until the mid to late 90s where they were able to coordinate operations on a strategic scale. They only operated at that level for about 6-7 year and haven't since Pastrana finally realized he was played the fool and went back into the DMZ.

Uribe will not get a 3rd term. Also there is no military or LE solution to the "total defeat" of FARC. There are too many other factors which impact their ability to function.

[D9 (RIP)]

Originally Posted by FILO

Chavez will continue to provide FARC with the most militarily significant resource; a safe haven where it's troops can R&R and train without COL MIL interference.

Historically FARC has operated in a decentralized manner and in fact, it wasn't until the mid to late 90s where they were able to coordinate operations on a strategic scale. They only operated at that level for about 6-7 year and haven't since Pastrana finally realized he was played the fool and went back into the DMZ.

Uribe will not get a 3rd term. Also there is no military or LE solution to the "total defeat" of FARC. There are too many other factors which impact their ability to function.

I guess Uribe has given them something to think about with the Raul Reyes operation as far as R&R goes. Also, the porous border is a benefit to a few Fronts but is not universally an option. The Southern and Eastern Fronts will be better insulated from the government's CI efforts because of coca revenue and geography, but they are not the whole movement.

I think Santos will get the presidency. But I would still like to see something pulled off with Uribe. That is not an unpopular idea on the ground there.

[krod]

I wouldn't be surprised if Uribe went for a third term... Last week in El tiempo and on AP, Santos stated that if the people want Uribe to have a 3rd term to start pushing it, that it was still an option for him. With his approval rating over 80%, i think its a possibility.

[FILO]

Originally Posted by D9

I guess Uribe has given them something to think about with the Raul Reyes operation as far as R&R goes. Also, the porous border is a benefit to a few Fronts but is not universally an option. The Southern and Eastern Fronts will be better insulated from the government's CI efforts because of coca revenue and geography, but they are not the whole movement.

I think Santos will get the presidency. But I would still like to see something pulled off with Uribe. That is not an unpopular idea on the ground there.

I also would like to see Uribe for a 3rd term, but, IMO I doubt the political forces will consolidate sufficiently to allow for this to happen. The sharing of power is a strong impulse between the two major political parties, liberals and conservatives, which has it's origins from La Violencia. Thus I can't see the parties choosing to support a 3rd term. The true irony regarding a possible 3rd term lies in the fact that most of the opposition would come from his own party, the liberals, since Uribe has significant conservative support and is opposed by the more radical elements within the liberals.