Chavez Urges FARC to end struggle....what?
 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7443080.stm

I think ole' Hugo is starting to worry about the rest of the world's opinion and the consequences for once....

Don't know why he's in such a hurry to turn a new leaf - all he has to do is sit tight until after our elections. He might not have to change a thing. The Dems already crushed the Free-trade deal with Colombia; God alone knows what will happen if they've got the whole enchilada. :(

Colombians aren´t buying his BS either.

The reality is that no matter who is buying it, it is good news for Colombia and validation of a great move made months ago on the part of the Uribe Gov't.

When Chavez introduced himself as a valid interloquitor between the FARC and Uribe's govermet he put himself in a ridiculous situation, and Uribe's government gladly went along with the charade. If things had of gone well, Uribe would have been credited with picking the right guy for hostage release. If they had gone poorly, the blame would have been shouldered by Chavez or borne by the FARC as unwilling negotiators.

Tired of grinding out negotiations with the guerilla, and sensing a moment to grab the grandstand and reverse a failed policy, Chavez has now initiated a strident break with his policy of the last two years regarding the FARC. Uribe was clever enough to put him in this pickle by agreeing to let him moderate hostage release.

Good for Uribe. Chavez now realizes, a move too late, that he has played into the hands of the good guys. In the process of backing out of this hole he's had to burn the guerillas. Whatever the rest of Colombia is doing right now, I can tell you there are several FARC bigshots who are not happy about this.

Does this mean the end of La Guerilla in Colombia? No. Is this one more bump in what is becoming an increasingly difficult road for them? ABSOLUTELY. Good for it. What we're seeing here is the triumph of the superior diplomat, and it should give us all reason to cheer. The bitter pill Chavez is having to swallow today he first put in his mouth when Uribe accepted his idiotic proposal to bring action and legitimacy to hostage release efforts.

For now, Uribe checks FARC by taking their most visible LA supporter out of the equation. Tomorrrow, hopefully, checkmate.

I think if the aid from Plan Colombia ever dries up and the US Embassy ceases to control Colombia, then Uribe's government will last about 10 minutes. Chavez and FARC are not the only concerns in this equation. There is also pressure from Rafael Correa, Evo Morales and a pretty big Middle Eastern influence in the region.
Let's just hope the new US President doesn't abandon the region.

I think its safe to say that the US Embassy does not "Control" Colombia.

Sorry for the mis-implication on that one. True, Colombia, as a whole, is not controlled by any one entity. I was implying the the U.S. exerts a lot of power when it come to decision making in Bogota - which is working pretty well from what I've seen.

Jeff R
 

Hi Check your PMs:D

On the civilian side maybe, the military side not so much...

It was painfully apparent a few months ago that we have no control over their Generals nor influence in their decision making process. They do what they do despite the best efforts of many in Bogotá.

Crip

Very true statement...

Hey Mike, good hearing from you amigo. Been a while. Glad to see you're back in the better half of the world. :D

Stay safe my friend,

Jeff

As far as the other part of this thread, the last time I was down in Bogota has been a couple of years ago and the US was pretty much calling the shots with all the PC money. Maybe times have changed. Like I said, it's going to be interesting to see what develops if a new administration decides to devise a new US Foreign Policy agenda in that region.

X3

No , IMO Chavez will continue to sponsor FARC, just more covert. Also FARC will be around another 4 plus decades in some form or another.

Maybe. The Ku Klux Klan is around today in the US but instead of the 5 million member centrally controlled organization it once was, it is various bubbas in their garages who for the most part can't kick their meth habits, much less organize a cross-burning. Even if Chavez does continue his sponsorship, and I don't disagree that he will, he will have to make it less overt and this can ONLY pay dividends.

I see fragmentation and decentralization in the near (5 yr) future for the FARC. I could be wrong. But I think it will go this way and independently they will be marginalized and picked off by the gov't - assuming a Uribe style gov persists there. I'm not sure SECDEF Santos will be up to the task but we'll see. I'm personally hoping the "World Democracy" crowd gets shocked and Uribe pulls a third term.

The problem with a decentralized FARC is that the groups that are the strongest, in the South and East (coca territory), have not been the groups suffering the setbacks recently experienced on the various fronts. Karina and Rios were from Antioquia and this has been a traditionally less friendly and profitable area for the G. We'll see if the limited successes against Southern and Eastern fronts can be improved upon with fragmentation, but at this point I see fragmentation as an inevitability.

Chavez will continue to provide FARC with the most militarily significant resource; a safe haven where it's troops can R&R and train without COL MIL interference.

Historically FARC has operated in a decentralized manner and in fact, it wasn't until the mid to late 90s where they were able to coordinate operations on a strategic scale. They only operated at that level for about 6-7 year and haven't since Pastrana finally realized he was played the fool and went back into the DMZ.

Uribe will not get a 3rd term. Also there is no military or LE solution to the "total defeat" of FARC. There are too many other factors which impact their ability to function.