New Battleground Poll Released

[pulque]

Originally posted by Roguish Lawyer
Anyone want to bet? Has to be something good. State the precise bet you want to make, including which prior election will be used to compare turnout.

how would you tell if they were voting "for the reasons stated"?

maybe just a bet on whether or not there are more men of draft age voting as compared to 2000?

[Bill Harsey]

RL, I smell a set up here, wouldn't bet against you. Greenhat, Thanks for mentioning you have voted in every election you could have. Me too. Back to RL, Does what PARTY we register with have anything to do with whether we are polled or not?

[Roguish Lawyer]

Originally posted by Bill Harsey
Does what PARTY we register with have anything to do with whether we are polled or not?

Depends on the poll. During primary season, for example, it is common to poll only the party whose nomination your candidate is seeking. In those polls, the list pull is going to be different not only in that you are polling only one party, but you are also going to target people who vote in primaries rather than general elections.

For polls like this, they probably do not select based on registration. They take a random sample which is large enough to generate a representative group.

[Roguish Lawyer]

Originally posted by pulque
how would you tell if they were voting "for the reasons stated"?

You wouldn't. You'd just look at turnout for a demographic. I'll bet it won't be higher than in the past.

I don't see either candidate appealing to young voters, so although some young voters may turn out due to concerns for their own skin, and others may turn out out of patriotism, most still won't bother.