Tunisia

[Team Sergeant]

Originally Posted by incarcerated

Because we don’t have a forum for the Maghreb…?
Where would you prefer he had posted this thread? (Personally, I’d have liked to have seen it in The Early Bird.)
From the NY Times piece:


No mention of a military coup, as reported by Stratfor.

Africa, where it belongs.

[silentreader]

Originally Posted by Team Sergeant

Africa, where it belongs.

Team Sergeant,

I apologize for misplacing this post. Feel free to move it to the appropriate forum (not that you'd need my permission).

Alternatively, I also mention protests in Jordan and Algeria and the Lebanese crisis, so renaming the thread something along the lines of Political Turmoil in the Arab World could also be appropriate.

Finally, an honest question. In the future, should I have something to post about either a)Israel/Palestine or b)Turkey should it be posted in the Europe thread or the Middle East thread?

[Team Sergeant]

Originally Posted by silentreader

Team Sergeant,

I apologize for misplacing this post. Feel free to move it to the appropriate forum (not that you'd need my permission).

Alternatively, I also mention protests in Jordan and Algeria and the Lebanese crisis, so renaming the thread something along the lines of Political Turmoil in the Arab World could also be appropriate.

Finally, an honest question. In the future, should I have something to post about either a)Israel/Palestine or b)Turkey should it be posted in the Europe thread or the Middle East thread?

I didn't take any offense and you didn't need to apologize. The mistake led to good discussion. It stays here now.

We broke our global forums down by geographic region, not culture.

[Pete]

Army attacks Tunisian presidential palace

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110116...csunrestpalace

"TUNIS (AFP) – The Tunisian army launched an assault on Sunday against supporters of ousted president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali holed up inside the presidential palace on the outskirts of Tunis, a security source told AFP......."

Things still bubbling over there.

[incarcerated]

Just a coincidence that, while the generally Asian practice of self-immolation is finding new practitioners in North Africa, this past weekend’s TV news showed a Tunisian protestor telling a reporter, “We want all power to the people!”
http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical...coup-contagion

Arab Leaders Fear Coup Contagion

January 18, 2011 | 0446 GMT
Individuals in three North African countries committed self-immolation on Monday, as Arab governments across the wider region sought to stem the potential for contagion generated by the recent popular uprising in Tunisia, which itself began with an act of self-immolation on Dec. 17. From Syria to Kuwait to Egypt and beyond, ruling regimes are looking inward and trying to pre-empt their discontented masses from coalescing into a threat to their rule.
As STRATFOR has noted, the larger significance of the Tunisian coup lies in its potential to be replicated elsewhere in the Arab world, and in how various governments choose to respond in an effort to prevent it from happening again. Opposition groups in every Arab country have now seen that it is possible to topple regimes that have been in place for decades, and that it does not take an Islamist uprising to do it. Tunisia, in short, has inspired them….

[akv]

"Let Them Eat Cake?"

Originally Posted by STRATFOR Link post #26

Governments in the region fear that such a dramatic act of suicide attempted in so public a fashion — with “new media” forums such as blogs, Twitter, Facebook and YouTube ready to spread the word in a way that can’t be done when state media is all that exists — could trigger a similar event in another country. These governments are searching for ways to pre-emptively appease their constituencies by offering economic aid packages and modest openings of political space. In the three days since the fall of former Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, there have been multiple examples of such concessions. 


In Kuwait, Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah decreed that every Kuwaiti citizen receive a one-time payment of KD 1,000 (roughly $3,558), plus free food rations for 13 months beginning in February. Officially, the gifts are being made in coordination with the fifth anniversary of al-Sabah’s rule.

In Syria, state media reported a government plan worth $250 million to help 420,000 impoverished families. Cash loans will be distributed to Syrian citizens who qualify for the aid beginning in February.

In Egypt, the managing editor of the ruling National Democratic Party’s (NDP) website wrote an article declaring that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak does not want poor people to pay new taxes or carry any additional burdens, and NDP officials have been tasked with determining a way to implement this directive throughout the year. In addition, the Egyptian Cabinet announced that it has drafted a law that sets 2017 as the deadline for political parties represented in parliament to field presidential candidates.

In Sudan (the northern, Arab region), the governor of Khartoum state announced measures designed to soften the blow of recent price hikes on commodities such as cooking oil and sugar. Free school meals and health insurance cards will be distributed to 30,000 students and their families.

This is a trend that will likely continue in the coming weeks and months, as world food prices remain high and global economic growth tepid. Arab countries that don’t have the oil wealth of the Persian Gulf states are constrained economically from being able to spend much on social development, but they will seek ways to do so nonetheless, in efforts to garner good faith among those they see as most likely to revolt. Granting additional freedoms to populations used to living under an autocratic society is historically much more dangerous for the ruling regime, but depending on each country’s circumstances, these various Arab governments may one day not have much of a choice. One thing is certain: No Arab ruler wants a citizen to light himself on fire on a busy city street, for fear of the possible side effects.

[Richard]

FYI - for planning purposes and area orientation, SF historically defined Africa sub-regionally as either Africa North of the Sahara or as Sub-Saharan Africa.

Be that as it may, now that we've determined Tunisia is still an African nation in that it actually lies in the geographically defined continent of Africa and despite the seeming wishes by some on this BB to move it (good luck with that one)...here are a few points to ponder.

Richard

What Tunisia Means for the Arab World
Atlantic, 18 Jan 2011

The popular uprising in Tunisia that forced dictator President Ben Ali to flee the country last week has left the North African country in a state of limbo. Ministers loyal to Ben Ali, who ruled for 23 years, are rapidly resigning their posts, an interim government is pledging to hold free elections, and the military is attempting to restore order as protests continue, looting becomes a problem, and rogue police officers continue to crack down. It's not clear where Tunisia goes next. Many commentators, however, find it increasingly apparent that Tunisia's historic uprising will have a profound effect on the rest of the Arab world, which spans across North Africa and the Middle East. What exactly that means, and how it plays out, is near-impossible to predict. Here's what analysts and reporters are saying about the impact of Tunisia so far and what it could mean going forward.

• Turning Point for Arab Democracy "If Tunisia's interim leaders respond to the demands of their people and usher in new elections," Michael Wahid Hanna writes in The Atlantic, "an Arab country will have toppled a tyrant through the power of its people and not the point of an American gun." This will establish an important precedent of democratic reform led internally by Arab peoples, rather than imposed from outside. "While the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the protests of the 'green movement' in Iran have had far-ranging regional ramifications, when it comes to promoting Arab democracy, Tunisia's 2011 uprising may eclipse them both."

• Self-Immolation Protests Spread Across Region Tunisia's protests began after a young man frustrated by police exploitation and arbitrary rule set himself on fire by touching a high-voltage current. The New York Times' Mona El-Naggar reports on the disturbing trend this has begun. "In Algeria, four men have set themselves on fire in the last week, and one man in Egypt and another in Mauritania tried to do so on Monday. They appear to be evidence of how deeply the ouster of Tunisia's autocratic president has captivated nearby countries, where citizens have limited opportunities for free expression or political participation."

• Is Egypt Next? Eric Trager writes in The Atlantic that "Egypt's liberal activists overwhelmingly come from the wired generation of Twitter and Facebook, and this makes them optimistic that pro-democratic movements can go viral, even in a political environment as traditionally illiberal as the Middle East." In fact, "pointing to recent demonstrations in Jordan and Algeria, they insist that Tunisia's 'Jasmine Revolution' will be contagious--if only people build off its momentum." But, Trager warns, protesters daunting obstacles, "In particular, an entrenched dictatorship that is determined to discredit the very idea of domino-effect democratization." He concludes, "The safe bet in Egypt is always on regime stability. But as Tunisia has demonstrated, anything is possible."

• Reforms Likely, Revolutions Are Not "Analysts say," The Christian Science Monitor's Scott Peterson writes, " that while Tunisia's so-called 'Jasmine Revolution' has shocked the Arab world ... it is unlikely to result in a chain of similar revolutions, but rather wider political reforms." Tunisia's strong middle class made it unusually likely to launch a successful popular uprising, and other Arab autocrats are well-practiced at squashing dissent. Still, the protests may encourage those leaders to institute some promising reforms, is only out of self-defense.

• Look to the Gulf Model UAE-based columnist Sultan al-Qassemi argues in Foreign Policy that "it is the Gulf city-states of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Doha--all of which are ruled by an assortment of emirs and monarchs--that offer the most compelling path forward for the Arab world. Despite a lack of Western-style democracy, talented young Arabs have flocked to these states in search of a better life." While al-Qassemi would of course prefer full democratization, the compromises of wealthy Gulf states, he says, could provide a middle path. "In the meantime, most Arabs would settle for a dignified and secure life. And that is precisely what the Gulf states are providing."

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/opini...rab-World-6594

[LongWire]

Originally Posted by silentreader

Finally, an honest question. In the future, should I have something to post about either a)Israel/Palestine or b)Turkey should it be posted in the Europe thread or the Middle East thread?

I would say that Israel and Palestine land squarely in the ME......Turkey is part of the EU now if we were to include them Geographically. I personally don't think of them being a ME country, more of a crossroads.......but that goes back a few centuries.

[silentreader]

Originally Posted by LongWire

I would say that Israel and Palestine land squarely in the ME......Turkey is part of the EU now if we were to include them Geographically. I personally don't think of them being a ME country, more of a crossroads.......but that goes back a few centuries.

I would agree with the first part, reason I asked is Israel/Palestine is considered EUCOM responsibility. As for Turkey, I'll use my best judgement, if the hypothetical story discusses the western part of Istanbul, it will go under Europe. If it discusses the rest of Turkey, I'll file it in the Middle East. If it talks about the Bosphorus...

Originally Posted by Team Sergeant

I didn't take any offense and you didn't need to apologize. The mistake led to good discussion. It stays here now.

We broke our global forums down by geographic region, not culture

Thanks for the response. I'm a guest in your house and don't want to track any mud.

[Team Sergeant]

Originally Posted by silentreader

Thanks for the response. I'm a guest in your house and don't want to track any mud.

I think you'll do well here.

[silentreader]

Originally Posted by Team Sergeant

I think you'll do well here.

I hope so. I can not imagine a better source of wisdom for a young (future) soldier than this site.

Back to the original topic, it seems that Tunisians have only taken the first step and their country's future is still very uncertain.

Does this remind anybody of the first stages of the Iranian revolution?