Quote:
Originally Posted by FILO
No , IMO Chavez will continue to sponsor FARC, just more covert. Also FARC will be around another 4 plus decades in some form or another.
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Maybe. The Ku Klux Klan is around today in the US but instead of the 5 million member centrally controlled organization it once was, it is various bubbas in their garages who for the most part can't kick their meth habits, much less organize a cross-burning. Even if Chavez does continue his sponsorship, and I don't disagree that he will, he will have to make it less overt and this can ONLY pay dividends.
I see fragmentation and decentralization in the near (5 yr) future for the FARC. I could be wrong. But I think it will go this way and independently they will be marginalized and picked off by the gov't - assuming a Uribe style gov persists there. I'm not sure SECDEF Santos will be up to the task but we'll see. I'm personally hoping the "World Democracy" crowd gets shocked and Uribe pulls a third term.
The problem with a decentralized FARC is that the groups that are the strongest, in the South and East (coca territory), have not been the groups suffering the setbacks recently experienced on the various fronts. Karina and Rios were from Antioquia and this has been a traditionally less friendly and profitable area for the G. We'll see if the limited successes against Southern and Eastern fronts can be improved upon with fragmentation, but at this point I see fragmentation as an inevitability.
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