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Originally Posted by pulque
In the early 90's, I believe it was US pressure that kept Pakistan's ISI from encouraging afghan warlords (notably, the Pashtun warlord Hekmatyar, Massoud's mortal enemy) from incurring on Soviet land in central asia (Uzbekistan). Now that the cold war is over, could there still be significant tension between the ethnic pashtuns (southern afghans) and former soviet states to the north? ie, tension that is not arab vs indigenous.
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Your information is somewhat erroneous. Pakistan's ISI specifically favored Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's
Hezb-e Islami because it did not threaten Soviet Central Asia.
Among the mujahideen parties, there were three parties usually described as traditionalist (Gailani's NIFA, Mojadedi's ANLF and Mohammedi's
Harakat). They favored a return of the king and restoration of Afghanistan's traditional tribal system. They were all predominantly Pushtun, though having power bases in different segments of the population (basically, former military officers, tribal elders and the village religious leadership).
There were four parties usually described as Islamist. Two of these were minor parties (Sayyaf's
Ittehad and a
Hezb breakaway led by Yunus Khalis). The other two were Hekmatyar's
Hezb and Rabbani's
Jami'at-e Islami, the party to which Massoud belonged. Hekmatyar's power base was among so-called detribalized Pushtuns - urban dwellers and those living in the north whose loyalty to the traditional leadership was broken. Rabbani's power base was among ethnic Tajiks such as Massoud in the northeast and Ismael Khan in the west (Ismael Khan is now the governor of Herat).
During the war against the Soviets, Uzbeks generally remained loyal to the communist regime. What Uzbek mujahideen there were tended to be part of
Jami'at. Other ethnic and religious minorities followed different paths. The Hazaras, ethnically Mongol and religiously Shi'ite, vigorously fought the communists. The Isma'ilis, a Shi'ite splinter sect, supported the regime. All of these, though, eventually sided with the United Front (AKA the Northern Alliance).
Pakistan favored Hekmatyar for several reasons, the most important of which were:
1. The traditionalist parties were all loyal to the king and drew power from the Pushtun tribes. There are as many Pushtuns in Pakistan as in Afghanistan, and the king was an advocate of "Greater Pushtunistan", so the Pakistani government considered the royalists a threat to Pakistani territorial integrity.
2. Hekmatyar's
Hezb shared an ideology generally similar to the Islamism of Pakistan's main Islamist group,
Jama'at Islami, which is very influential in the Pakistani officer corps. Pakistan, like Afghanistan, is a cobbled-together multi-ethnic state with Islam as the only unifying factor. Pakistani "nationalism" is, essentially, Islam.
3. Hekmatyar was utterly opportunistic, so ISI though he could be a useful pawn.
In the eyes of the Pakistani officer corps and the ISI, Hekmatyar was the ideal horse to back because he would maintain Afghanistan's national identity and, more importantly, its borders. He would be no threat to Pakistan.
In fact, it was Jami'at, and especially Ahmad Shah Massoud, who presented a threat to the Central Asian republics.
Jami'at provided support to Tajikistan's United Tajik Opposition (UTO) before and during the Tajikistan Civil War of 1992-93.
The current Uzbek and Tajik governments, having materially supported the United Front against the Taliban, have close relationships with Afghanistan's Uzbek and Tajik leaders, especially Uzbekistan with Afghan Uzbek leader Rashid Dostum. Iran also has good relations with several Tajik leaders (who speak the same language) such as Ismael Khan, and with Afghanistan's main Shi'ite parties. The current Afghan government is a balancing act of Afghanistan's main ethnic and religious communities, and there are probably many Pushtuns who resent the loss of their special status, but outside of Hekmatyar and the neo-Taliban, most appear to be working within the system (for example, Sibghatullah Mojadedi, who headed the royalist ANLF in the Afghan-Soviet War, chaired the loya jirga which drafted Afghanistan's constitution).
Hybrid Mode
