Data/Statistics

Roycroft201 · 04-14-2007, 20:33

I'm just curious.

This site, combined with Major Martin's Get Selected, provides SF hopefuls with a tremendous amount of information that they might not have found so easily before the creation of PS.com.

Is there any way to know what percentage of SF hopefuls get selected now as compared to the percentage selected prior to the birth of this site and the publishing of Get Selected ?

It is probably impossible to track, but I was curious so I thought I'd ask.

**The Reaper** · 04-14-2007, 20:39

Too many variables other than this to make the calculation valid.

SWCS keeps tons of stats, which will prove any point you want to make, but the simple fact is that the CG, USAJFKSWCS stating that he wants 750 grads per year will have more of an impact on selection and graduation rates than all of the outside help in the world.

IIRC, the first 18Xs should soon be hitting their ETS dates. It will be interesting to see what they do.

TR

NousDefionsDoc · 04-14-2007, 20:51

I am estimating it will not change. Unless the Green Tick and Land Nav go away.You can talk about what to do, how to do it all day long. But eventually you will have to ruck up and pass the test.

**Jack Moroney (RIP)** · 04-15-2007, 05:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Reaper

, but the simple fact is that the CG, USAJFKSWCS stating that he wants 750 grads per year will have more of an impact on selection and graduation rates than all of the outside help in the world.TR

Yep, someone is going to get a career defining opportunity based on a possible clash of personalities and professionalism. Ahh the memories

x SF med · 04-15-2007, 19:59

Ok- 750 Grads/ yr of the Q - expected Grad rate (generous)50%? Expected SFAS selection rate - 20%? to keep the same standards that would mean 7500 men would have to go through SFAS to keep the current standards of excellence - that's 15 SFAS classes a year, back to back with nearly 500 students each...

Should we pull in retired/ets'd guys to help support the training? I don't know, SF is too important to compromise quality, but there is quality in the guys who are no longer in the field.

edited for brevity.

**Pete** · 04-15-2007, 20:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by x SF med

....Should we pull in retired/ets'd guys to help support the training? I don't know, SF is too important to compromise quality, but there is quality in the guys who are no longer in the field.......

Land Nav point on a Fri. or Sat. Night? When you're retired that sounds like fun. Active duty guys would rather do other things on a weekend. A big thermos of Coffee, a cigar or three, a dark night, maybe a little wind and rain? Ah, yes.

Pete

mffjm8509 · 04-16-2007, 04:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Reaper

USAJFKSWCS stating that he wants 750 grads per year will have more of an impact on selection and graduation rates than all of the outside help in the world.

IIRC, the first 18Xs should soon be hitting their ETS dates. It will be interesting to see what they do.

TR

763 Grads in FY06, or at least thats how many Branch put on assignment. Accual math on who/how many reported is a bit trickier.

We are using a 50% retention model right now, same as used by Ranger Regiment and SEALs for our first termers. From talking to guys in the filed that seems accurate as a lot of these 18Xs are choosing to ETS despite level 3-4 bonuses.

mp

**Pete** · 04-16-2007, 04:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by mffjm8509

...We are using a 50% retention model right now, same as used by Ranger Regiment and SEALs for our first termers. From talking to guys in the filed that seems accurate as a lot of these 18Xs are choosing to ETS despite level 3-4 bonuses. ....

Another wrench into the stats would be how many of those first termers that get out go into the reserves shortly after or reenlist within a couple of years for SF units.

Everybody is a 1st termer at one time. It's just that when you've reenlisted once you're a good bet for a few more, maybe even 20 years.

Pete

**The Reaper** · 04-16-2007, 08:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by mffjm8509

763 Grads in FY06, or at least thats how many Branch put on assignment. Accual math on who/how many reported is a bit trickier.

We are using a 50% retention model right now, same as used by Ranger Regiment and SEALs for our first termers. From talking to guys in the filed that seems accurate as a lot of these 18Xs are choosing to ETS despite level 3-4 bonuses.

mp

Good to know.

That simulataneously saddens and surprises me. They made it through one of the toughest selection and training courses in the world, served with the best brothers you could ask for, and yet choose to separate. Love to see a good survey on the reasons for leaving.

Could be the war, but I will be interested to see how many come back either to AD or join the Guard.

TR

dennisw · 04-16-2007, 08:51

Quote:

choosing to ETS despite level 3-4 bonuses. ....

In most leadership programs the myth of money as a motivator is addressed. In most I've attended or read they always say money is not the key element in determining job satisfaction. Apparently it is true as it relates to 18x's. Then again many of these folks, especially those with college degrees, may be transitioning to other organizations where they see carreer path where the compensation is higher on a constant basis.

In talking with some of the 18x's I think the money and the constant deployment schedule are not the deciding factors. It seems the environment whereby the teams are micro managed is one of the factors influencing many decisions. "Why be SF if you're not allowed to do SF things" is a comment I've heard more then a few times. This could be a product of unreal expectations or it could be substantive issue. I'm not sure how one solves this problem.

incommin · 04-16-2007, 09:14

"Why be SF if you're not allowed to do SF things" is a comment I've heard more then a few times."

During the years of Vietnam a large number of SF volunteered to go back... the reason.....it was the only place they got to do what they were trained to do. For the most part it was the only place where they experienced job satisfaction.

Jim

LongWire · 05-05-2007, 21:10

I would agree with that.

When you see memo's from SGM's stating to: "quit calling DA, your Honor is To Serve", its hard to justify to a good dude on top of a lot of the other BS, that he should stay.

Money is calling them away as well............

mffjm8509 · 05-05-2007, 22:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by LongWire

I would agree with that.

When you see memo's from SGM's stating to: "quit calling DA, your Honor is To Serve", its hard to justify to a good dude on top of a lot of the other BS, that he should stay.

I'd like you to quantify this with a name, specific instances that you can verify from your own experience, or email me that "memo". PM me if neccessary. I've personally addressed this at USASOC, USASFC, and with each Group CSM.

I've tried my best to squash shit like this in my time at "DA".

With all the information we put on the web and all the trips we've taken to visit the boys, there is no reason why anyone doesnt know who/how to get ahold of us at Branch. Stu and I spend hours on the phone with guys every day.

mp

Daver · 05-05-2007, 22:14

It's too bad if there are SGM's still out there keeping guys from trying to manage their own careers. We try to help them and I've encouraged guys to call branch on numerous occasions. I concur that the guys at branch have been to the groups and told guys to feel free to contact them. I called branch myself in 1992 and they squared me away back then.....chances are things haven't changed much.
BTW, have you talked to the 91W branch folks lately??

Take care,

Daver

mffjm8509 · 05-05-2007, 22:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daver

have you talked to the 91W branch folks lately??

Daver

HA, If thats directed to me.......the answer is I have not.

resend me the details via email and I'll check on it again. I've only got about 3 weeks left here before I head to school.

mp