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Originally Posted by The Reaper
Not until his brother goes as well.
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Which one? He is survived by somewhere between 21 and 24 brothers, including 6 full brothers (the surviving members of the "Sudairi Seven"). I assume you mean Crown Prince Abdullah, the new king.
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Originally Posted by The Reaper
Fahd had not been involved in running the country for a long time.
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Not
as involved as when he was healthier, but his sons have been acting to ensure that Abdullah didn't consolidate all power during Fahd's infirmity.
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Originally Posted by The Reaper
Really interesting that Bandar just announced his job change a week ago or so. Must have known something.
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Either he did or someone else did. Bandar's father, Prince Sultan bin Abd al-Aziz, has already been named as crown prince, as was expected. Prince Sultan should also become First Deputy Prime Minister, as Abdullah moves up to Prime Minister.
Two things to look for:
1. Whether Sultan keeps his portfolio as Minister of Defence. When Abdullah became Crown Prince and First Deputy Prime Minister, he kept command of the National Guard, maintaining his independent power base. If Sultan relinquishes control of the armed forces, it means that despite being Crown Prince, he loses real power. But if his younger full-brother Prince Abd al-Rahman, the current Deputy Minister of Defense, moves up, or if his son Field Marshal Prince Khalid bin Sultan comes out of retirement, it may mean his power is intact.
However, if someone like Prince Badr moves over, then there is a major power shift taking place. Badr is currently Deputy Commander of the National Guard and is close to Abdullah. Also, he was one of the reformist "Free Princes" sent into exile in the 1960s.
2. Who becomes Second Deputy Prime Minister. The line of succession runs from King and PM to Crown Prince/1st Deputy PM to 2nd Deputy PM. Prince Nayef is the most likely candidate, even though he has several living older brothers. He is the Interior Minister, giving him control of the police, so with Abdullah's National Guard and Sultan's armed forces, these three princes control the instruments of power. But Nayef, and another candidate, Riyadh governor Prince Salman, are members of the Sudairi Seven, so Abdullah might look elsewhere to break their hold.
Next in age after Prince Sultan are Prince Mit'ib, the Minister of Municipalities (not an especially powerful position), the aforementioned Prince Abd al-Rahman, and Prince Talal. Prince Talal is the dark horse. He has not held a major government position since the early 1960s and is currently Saudi representative to UNESCO. He was the leader of the Free Princes. Abdullah was close to the Free Princes and protected them from further retaliation by other princes.