More on the aftermath of the South China Sea claim tribunal, Duerte's "defection", the upcoming U.S. election, and the apparently deteriorating prospects for the West in that arena, all in the pot together and seen through a Japanese lens.
"Major powers are no longer able to solve the world's problems through dialogue. The changing political tide in Washington, precipitated by Obama's anticipated exit in January, is a major factor. The current administration is still touting its pivot to Asia, but critics say he has lost the upper hand when it comes to China. It will be hard for him to take a tougher stance on Beijing in the remaining few months of his term.
Another is the waning authority of international law. An arbitration tribunal in July handed a sweeping defeat to Beijing over its claims in the South China Sea, based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Japan and the U.S. hoped the decision would curb China. But Beijing has categorically rejected the ruling, choosing instead to take advantage of Obama's vulnerability as a lame-duck president to indermine (sic) the existing legal order.
"We are losing hope in Japan and the U.S., and have no choice but to bet on bilateral talks between the Philippines and China," an ASEAN diplomatic source said. But Duterte seems to be approaching Manila's legal victory as a way to draw out economic assistance from Beijing. China's expansion and disregard for international law has shed light on the limits to traditional dialogue in the current world order."
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Econ...outh-China-Sea
I suspect western diplomacy is running out of value, as, when it comes to China, diplomacy costs much and can deliver little as there is little will (and less economic capacity than there used to be) to escalate when China ignores law and rulings. Increasingly, the old standbys of western "gunboat diplomacy" and "dollar diplomacy" are being used, but now more so by China.
The loss of hope (my bold highlight above) is especially concerning for me. If it is generally true in the population, it may be a prelude to a general mass social mindset of surrender on issues of strategic importance in the democratic countries around or otherwise engaged with China. This will be especially important in the voting public and in the boardrooms where much of the economic battle is (or at least should be) being fought.