Quote:
Originally Posted by MtnGoat
Well we were talking about the upcoming elections in Afghanistan. With the state of Afghanistan Economy and its democracy or whatever you want to call the government and how they are basically in the same state. Well if you are looking at how both impact each other and without a strong economy means nothing if the government collapses after it's formed.
Someone had brought up Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai is a politician in Afghanistan who is currently running in the 2014 presidential election. A guy brought up how he won a government scholarship in 1977 to Columbia University.
I remembered how He stayed at Columbia University and he had worked at University of California, Berkeley and Johns Hopkins University.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashraf_Ghani_Ahmadzai
I remembered him from a book he wrote titled: “Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World.” This book discussing how a countries that could be in danger of collapsing or has collapsed already and how it impacts could be based off the roles that the country or state plays in building, internal societies and other factors.
I had picked the book up to see how it could be in analyzing these countries and what Geo-political elements can learned from them and find what they did wrong for current and future countries. I felt "Fixing Failed States" is a great book and is informative for Analyst, Civil Affairs leaders, Battalion level leaders and above.
Hopefully with Ashraf Ghani having a great base on Cultural Anthropology and understanding what a State needs to do to succeed would help him. Yet if Ashraf Ghani has been in Afghanistan for over ten years, then he is likely just like all the rest of the leaders in that country. Which mean, not a damn thing will be done under his terms if he wins this year’s election.
I will say this; NATO is doing it smart by only looking at the "Kabul-Centric" governing. It is the same thing that worked 40-50 years ago to some degree in Afghanistan. |
I believe he previously ran for president at the last election and polled quite poorly(like 1% poorly IIRC).
Interestingly enough his brother Hashmat Ghani is the leader of the Kuchis and was also a candidate in the 2014 election, but since Hashmat holds US citizenship is unable to run(or so I'm told my peers who have met him).
Hashmat has had a long and interesting relationship with the US and seems like a pretty switched on and politically/economically/tribally savvy(internally and externally) individual.
I get the sense that Ashraf is an academic without influence/control over any tribal groups unless it is by proxy through his brother's control of the Kuchis and a coalition of others.
I'm guessing he is unlikely to poll any higher than single digits and wonder why his brother Hashmat was originally running in opposition to Ashraf.
My understanding of Afghan politics is extremely limited and am happy to defer to those with a better understanding.
It's simply a very lucky coincidence that between my two closest peers and myself working in Afghan on and off the last 1-2 years we've had some direct run ins with a number of the 2014 candidates/players.
I seriously wonder how it's all going to work and hold together when the strongest candidate will probably be lucky to pull 30%(Abdullah Abdullah).
Hopefully a weak federal and strong provincial system will eventually evolve(and be recognized as such) without too much bloodshed.
For the record, I offer my opinion for free....and as such....is probably worth less than what you paid to read it! So caveat emptor
