Quote:
Originally Posted by BOfH
It isn't just the cheap crap, it's the expensive technology as well. China currently has the monopoly on rare earth, which puts a lot at stake here in the US until we get our own production up to speed. |
"Reserves" are an economic measure not a physical one.
China's advantage comes from cheap labor and lax safety regulations.
Our production will never get up to speed so long as Chinese are producing it more cheaply.
There are plenty of sub-economic rare earth deposits elsewhere (including the US).
Many nations have a massive "reserve" of rare earths in disposed consumer-electronics.
If China attempts to restrict supply they will only be cutting their own throat.
A rise in price would make recycling economic and would enable other countries to develop their own resources.
Commodity markets are generally way ahead of this stuff.
In 2007, rhodium was way out there on the risk matrix
http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?reco...12034&page=165
Markets were aware and were priced accordingly.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/rh1825lnb.html
Increased risk causes increased prices which ultimately causes increased supply, decreased risk, and decreased prices.
Mineral availability is limited more by economics than it is by technology or physical deposits.
Don't need to look any further than the oil and natural gas boom in this country see this in action.