[MtnGoat]

As ISAF does it transition in next coming years, just thought I bump this thread. I like to bring up some points to this Nightmare we call Afghanistan.

I too won’t call Afghanistan a Country either kgoerz, because it isn’t. It is an area made up by may different areas, controlled by different people and tribes. Sadly this is the root of its problems, Ethic divide within Afghanistan. Taliban built on this in the mid 1990’s. The non-pashtuns never have worked for or be under control of the Taliban. Even King Mohammed Zahir Shah said that he ruled under the shadow of power due to the tribe difference. He did at least make a constitution which turned Afghanistan into a modern democratic state by introducing free elections, a Parliament, civil rights, women's rights and education systems. But this tribe ethic divide has made Afghanistan a land that for over 2000 years has never been under external control. This is why the Taliban had been able to take over with outsider influences. The issues today are the way the Taliban has started a divide within its ranks. It runs under its Taliban ideologically but it is divide on about 3 to 4 fronts, the South and East divide with the elements within Pakistan, in the East the control fighting between Haqqani Network (HQN), and the Hizb-I Islami Gulbuddin (HIG), then the ISI involvement.

GIRoA has no money to run itself. With the elite/ ruling class running everything and taking every bit of money poured into the country through foreign governments. Everything that has been set up within Afghanistan has been a failure. DoS and the military had a plan for nation building. The issue between DoS or DoD and other nations is that when Senior military leader failures occur when the civilian leaders and military commanders become disconnected. This happen on so many levels, for each RC and sector, each time a new commander came in to command they never followed the plan set up. The base line plan or changed everything up for there own plan. Not flowing a plan caused many issues within Afghanistan. Then you have the issue with JOBs in Afghanistan. With ISAF and NATO pulling out Afghanistan’s economy will face a sharp shock after international troops withdraw in 2014, removing the one factor that provided investors and businesses with a measure of confidence for Afghanistan economic infrastructure development. But even with a secure economic infrastructure Afghanistan still suffers from massive institutional corruption, which means that much of the tens of billions of foreign investment that have flowed into the country has been squandered by the ruling class. Once 2014 rolls around this ruling class will be flying out by the dozen to Dubai, Middle East, and the EU. I bet next year this will start happening. US and EU should follow the AID development plan that China has, they don’t provide large amounts of “cash” they go in with Chinese Companies and build with locals the aid projects. So they are in control of the cash and then have that nice Civil platform.

Pakistan and its impact on Afghanistan development. This is something that has been an issue since the start of time. Pakistan has never wanted a successful Afghanistan. This has been from the two British control periods to the 1947 creation, to the Soviet period and the backing of the mujahideen through the ISI and PAK Army, then with ISI backing of the Taliban. The Pakistan and its Military/ISI has been stirring up problems within Afghanistan for many years. Pakistan has so many internal problems and does look inward, but with its military controlling class always pointing outwards. Pakistan has two of four providence with a insurgency problem. The Military/ISI “made” the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) inadvertently through the creation of Islamic fundamentalist militants groups to fight in the Indian-administered Kashmir, a territory claimed and disputed by Pakistan. The TTP “pulled” together an alliance of about five militant groups in Pakistan formed in 2007 to unify groups fighting against the Pakistani military in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistani military/ISI “turned” on their insurgent groups in a confrontation in July 2007 between Islamic fundamentalist militants and the Government of Pakistan in an operation against the Lal Masjid ("Red Mosque") and the Jamia Hafsa madrasah complex in Islamabad, Pakistan. Then you have the long running Balochistan conflict which is an ongoing conflict between Baloch nationalists and the Government of Pakistan over Balochistan. Baloch nationalists ideals have changed over the years, but this is a insurgency that Pakistan Military has to deal with.
So has the chickens come home to roost?

Afghan Army. Now here is a beast of burden. With GIRoA having no money to run itself and with the elite/ ruling class running everything and taking every bit of money poured into the country will leave the ANA in the hands of Taliban. Under current NATO plans the ANSF are supposed to take over responsibility for security of Afghanistan by the middle of 2013 and all ISAF troops will be withdrawn from combat operations by the end of 2014. Afghanistan’s future will be jeopardized with Taliban returning to control of the country when foreign troops are pulled out. The main issue with ANA is that NATO/ISAF never built an Officer Corps. The Soviet did do something close to this during its time in Afghanistan. Most Officers were tied to their Afghanistan communist parties. Soviet rebuilt the Afghan Army 3 or 4 times. With the Enlisted ranks they will be tied back to their tribal links. This will lead to ANA going back to the same problems the Soviets Army splintered between the government in Kabul and the various warring factions between “warlord” Commanders. Left behind will be military aid in the form of DoS development and DoD training teams to the different ANA commands.

Afghan neighbors don’t want U.S. presence in Afghanistan. Most of the neighbors of Afghanistan don’t want a U.S. military presence within Afghanistan after 2014. Like I said Pakistan has never wanted a successful Afghanistan, Iran pushes aid into the western Afghanistan and the Shi'a areas. All the northern countries are spilt in were they are in support of Afghanistan. India is likely the main supporter of a successful Afghanistan. Even with an America and Afghanistan signing a strategic pact which would allow thousands of United States troops to remain in the country until at least 2024. The Russians have complained that any talks of U.S. Military troop presence in Afghanistan after 2014 violates international understandings. The main one including one made in a joint statement by President Obama and President Dmitri A. Medvedev on supporting a neutral status for Afghanistan. So as Conventional Troops are pulled out and Afghan forces would still need support from US fighter aircraft, helicopters and USSOF elements left behind to support the ANA. So if no neighbors want U.S. around what will change? How will this affect the insurgences of the Taliban and their control or take cover of Afghanistan. Will the Taliban become part of the new Government; remember that 2014 is an election year for Afghanistan too.

Wake up ..wake up your having an NIGHTMARE!!