Quote:
Originally Posted by nmap
Looks like time for an update. Notice that this will reduce exports, hence income for the Government of Mexico. With a growing narco-insurgency, interesting effects may develop.
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Mr Shields sees little chance of political change. He paints a bleak picture of Mexico's future. "We are exporting more than about 1m barrels a day, which is much less than before, and that is a number that is going to slowly move down towards zero over the next 10 years," he says.
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There can be no doubt. And the term "narco-insurgency" is of course correct. Couple this with the fact that they can't even maintain reliable police forces to the minimum UN standard in metropolitan areas of 2.8 police officers per 1000 citizens, coupled with the rampant corruption of the government at all levels, poverty and many other factors - and it's a very serious potential powder keg.
The police are paid very low wages. They are ordered to cooperate with the Narco traffickers - or die. Sometimes their family too. They stand to make a bit more to a lot more money by being involved in the drug trade. At some point a lot of them end up dead or in prison. A lot of them run away and quit.
45,000 Mexican Armed Forces soldiers, mostly from the Army, have deserted in the last five years, 90% of them Privates. Mexico has a military desertion rate of about 8%-10% per year according to some estimates.
And believe it or not, the desertion rate has actually gone down from ten years ago or so. Slightly improved pay and conditions are cited. Could be economic as well. They need a job.
If the global economy continues to shrink, the Cartels will grow even stronger. With the kind of money involved, no matter how many they take down, it simply leaves a vacuum that others will fill.
As Mexican oil diminishes, more people are likely to turn to the drug trade. It's estimated that up to $40 billion a year is generated in the Mexican drug trade and potentially millions of people involved in some way, shape or form in it.
There seems to be a demographic of jobless people in the US and around the world for that matter - that seem to always somehow be able to come up with money for drugs. Usually at the expense of honest citizens.
I have read opinions that claim that really only the Mexican Marines are largely reliable anymore and []
comparatively[/] un-corrupted FWIW.
Anyone who wants to get a good understanding on how severe the problem is with maintaining proper police forces down there and other problems should read and comprehend this article.
http://insightcrime.org/insight-late...l-battle-rages