Quote:
Originally posted by The Reaper
How do you reconcile a 11 point spread (Time) with a 4, a 3 or 2, and a 1 point spread (ARG)?
Moore is such a fat-assed idiot.
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Two possible explanations:
1. Time's is an outlier, and should probably be discounted. Their sample may have been skewed. Sampling error only corrects for probability error, but not for "garbage in/garbage out." They may have sampled too many Republicans (or the other polls are sampling too few, a common critique of Zogby and the LA Times).
2. Time's is closer to an accurate picture, either because, as stated, their sample was better, or because the others concluded much of their sampling too early and didn't effectively catch the effect of Miller's and Cheney's speeches or other developments leading up to last night.
Follow-up polls might give a better picture of the bounce, if any, and the general trend. The hurricane might have an effect, though. A long weekend with working people at home will also alter the sample of telephone polls.
BTW, calling Moore a fat-assed idiot is an insult to fat people and idiots (though the latter might not realize they're being insulted).