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RTK · 03-07-2011, 21:38

Richard's point on credibility is key. What the people see and recognize as legitimate in the end is of paramount importance. Every bomb Qadafi's planes drop on the rebels undermines any credibilty we may have with the people who are looking to us to put a stop to this, not to mention the obvious blow to the credibility and legitimacy of the Libyan armed forces (a rats' nest that will take years to build back up after this ends). From a US perspective it's a Catch 22 - Do nothing or too little and you look incompetent and apathetic but do too much and you're imposing American will on the people of Libya.

I think it's interesting in light of the SECDEFs comments in recent weeks about bolstering the Air Force and Navy and directing the Army towards security assistance - kinda looks like a most likely course of action in this contingency with a very limited ground presence.

Regardless, without getting our foot in the door we lose our place at the table to help assist and frame the future of Libya once this concludes. Eventually Qadafi will quit, leave, be killed, get run out, or just flat out die. His sons don't have the referent power to stay in power once the old man leaves. I have a feeling once the military leadership starts to feel like they're backing a losing horse they'll take care of the internal displacement in an attempt to resurrect some semblance of legitimacy.

One of the things that helped our stake in the Egyptian revolution was the fact that for nearly 40 years Egyptian officers have been attending our professional military education courses; from the basic course to the War College and everything in between. We don't have this relationship with the Libyans and we're going to need to do something to fill in that gap.

It should also be remembered that Egypt isn't fully resolved yet and Egypt is the prize. Anything we do (or don't do) in Libya has potential effects on how we're percieved or recieved in Egypt's post-Mubarak government, not to mention all the concern we had a few weeks ago about the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

On the other hand, we have the words of TE Lawrence to ponder and guide; "better they do it tolerably than for you to do it perfectly."

03-07-2011, 21:38	#8
RTK Guerrilla Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Fort Carson, CO Posts: 338	Richard's point on credibility is key. What the people see and recognize as legitimate in the end is of paramount importance. Every bomb Qadafi's planes drop on the rebels undermines any credibilty we may have with the people who are looking to us to put a stop to this, not to mention the obvious blow to the credibility and legitimacy of the Libyan armed forces (a rats' nest that will take years to build back up after this ends). From a US perspective it's a Catch 22 - Do nothing or too little and you look incompetent and apathetic but do too much and you're imposing American will on the people of Libya. I think it's interesting in light of the SECDEFs comments in recent weeks about bolstering the Air Force and Navy and directing the Army towards security assistance - kinda looks like a most likely course of action in this contingency with a very limited ground presence. Regardless, without getting our foot in the door we lose our place at the table to help assist and frame the future of Libya once this concludes. Eventually Qadafi will quit, leave, be killed, get run out, or just flat out die. His sons don't have the referent power to stay in power once the old man leaves. I have a feeling once the military leadership starts to feel like they're backing a losing horse they'll take care of the internal displacement in an attempt to resurrect some semblance of legitimacy. One of the things that helped our stake in the Egyptian revolution was the fact that for nearly 40 years Egyptian officers have been attending our professional military education courses; from the basic course to the War College and everything in between. We don't have this relationship with the Libyans and we're going to need to do something to fill in that gap. It should also be remembered that Egypt isn't fully resolved yet and Egypt is the prize. Anything we do (or don't do) in Libya has potential effects on how we're percieved or recieved in Egypt's post-Mubarak government, not to mention all the concern we had a few weeks ago about the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. On the other hand, we have the words of TE Lawrence to ponder and guide; "better they do it tolerably than for you to do it perfectly." __________________ Example is better than precept.
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