Quote:
Originally Posted by fng13
Why won't AQ come back if we leave? Is it that it is too hot and would further draw unwanted attention or is it that the population is against them?
I am not suggesting that they would, I am genuinly interested in this.
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They might- but it is an assumption. Many people (including ISAF, some politicians, and many think-tanks) state it as fact: if the Taliban takeover and/or we leave- AQ will naturally come back, set-up training camps, and resume bombing our cities.
All of those are a chain of assumptions, and many analysts have written that they are bad assumptions- or at least assumptions that are not worth banking the amount of money/troops/and effort we are to make sure they don't happen. There's also the thought that if they DO come back- they'd be more targetable and it would cost us much less, we'd get more of them, and it would be easier to hit them there as opposed to being in Pakistan, Somalia, Indonesia, etc.
And that's another crux of the argument: AQ is arguably more of a threat against us in other places- but, although we may be targeting them through SOF and intel assets- we're devoting much less treasure to those- yet getting a bigger bang for our buck there.
But- to get to the main point: I would submit that the Taliban had a very tenuous relationship with AQ and that today they are very different than what they were prior to 2001. They probably wouldn't want to come to power in certain places and then make a group welcome that they know would invite U.S. retaliation and interest. There are many places in Afghanistan that- given the chance- they will fight ANY outsiders- to include AQ. And the Taliban aren't a monolithic entity either- many are local powerbrokers using the Taliban moniker for their own local interests.
So- I'd conclude that if we left, that the Taliban would only gain power in a few places- and that most of them would probably strike some sort of agreement with Kabul to stay alive. I'd conclude that AQ wouldn't be welcome back. And I'd conclude that if AQ did come back in whatever form/# they would- we could easily target and wipe them out in Afghanistan in the foreseeable future (assuming we keep some SOF, trainers, advisers, money, and logistics support to the ANSF).