|
[continued from previous post]
Bush Holding His Own
Compared with the trend of modest erosion for Kerry in the poll, Bush either slightly gained ground or stabilized his position on several measures.
Bush's overall approval rating, which many analysts consider the best single gauge of his prospects in November, stood at 52%, with 47% disapproving; the numbers last month were 51% to 48%.
Bush's approval rating on the economy, at 46%, hardly budged from July. But the percentage of voters who gave him positive marks on Iraq did bump up from 44% in July to 48% now, with 50% disapproving.
Asked if the situation in Iraq was worth launching the war over, 46% said yes and 49% said no; last month the numbers were 44% and 51%.
"We should have done it a long time ago, eight to 10 years ago, and we probably wouldn't have had 9/11," said Gene Cox, a small-business owner and veteran from Crestview, Fla., who is supporting Bush.
Yet warning signs continue to blink at Bush. Fully 54% of voters said the country was not better off because of Bush's policies and that it should move in a new direction — although that represented an improvement for Bush from the 59% who felt that way last month.
Asked if Bush deserved reelection, 47% of voters said yes and 49% said no. By contrast, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, the last two presidents who won a second term, polled 56% and 57% on that question, respectively, in other polls at roughly this time in their campaigns.
While 45% of those polled said Bush's economic policies had left the country worse off, just 27% believed they had improved conditions. Independents fell on the negative side of that ledger by nearly 3 to 1. And 52% of all voters said the country was heading down the wrong track.
Voters were far more likely to identify Bush than Kerry as inflexible and unwilling to admit his mistakes. Pluralities picked Kerry over Bush when asked which man had better ideas for strengthening the economy and which was more likely "to build respect for the United States around the world."
"While America has had an image problem for decades, it's never been this low," said Grace Russo Bullaro, an independent and college professor from Syosset, N.Y., who did not vote in 2000 but planned to support Kerry this fall. "The world is now afraid that Bush is going to blow us up."
Since last month's poll, Bush has gained in the race against Kerry across a broad range of groups.
But Bush's greatest strides have come among groups that tend to hold more culturally conservative views, among them: voters earning less than $40,000 a year, those without college educations, married women, and voters living in small towns or rural communities. By contrast, since July, Bush has made almost no progress, or has lost ground, among constituencies that typically hold more socially moderate views: college graduates, more affluent families and suburbanites.
The Democrats picking Bush over Kerry in the poll tended to fit that profile as well, with Kerry suffering his greatest defections among Democrats without college degrees, those who own guns, and those who call themselves conservative, live in rural areas or are married.
All of this may offer more indirect evidence that the Vietnam-era charges are hurting Kerry with socially conservative constituencies that both sides covet.
One potential bright spot for Kerry: The 5% of voters who said they were undecided were overwhelmingly negative on the direction of the country, the impact of Bush's policies and the decision to invade Iraq.
Those voters were also much more likely than the electorate overall to say Kerry's service in Vietnam "demonstrated qualities America needs in a president." And they were less likely to see Kerry's protests when he returned as a sign of flawed judgment.
That could make them a receptive audience as Kerry fights to regain his balance from the Swift boat veterans' offensive, even as Bush approaches the stage for his convention.
Times staff writer Kathleen Hennessey contributed to this report.
|