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The trouble is..
We don't have enought information to assess the badniks decision making process. I don't believe there is a mastermind orchestrating the attacks. But as its been said, several true believers with different ideas about the ultimate goal. The targeting decisions being made are as numerous as the personnel making them.
I don't think putting all of my chips with probing the defense and causing a diversion for a different attack is what I would do. I dont think the AQ has the kind of personnel, resources, or opportunity to cause a significant diversion.
That said, I do believe we end up chasing a great deal of ghosts. Things get aborted for all sorts of reasons, it takes alot of cajones to carry out a significant attack.
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National Guard Marksmanship Training Center
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