Quote:
Originally posted by The Reaper
Radio talk shows saying that polls are indicating Kerry is losing momentum and may have peaked already.
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http://abcnews.go.com/sections/polit...ll_040726.html
High-Stakes Convention
Poll Shows Support for Kerry Weakens on Issues and Attributes
Analysis
By Gary Langer
July 26, 2004 The critical convention season begins with John Kerry losing momentum at just the hour he'd like to be gaining it: President Bush has clawed back on issues and attributes alike, reclaiming significant ground that Kerry had taken a month ago.
Kerry has lost support against Bush in trust to handle five of six issues tested in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, including terrorism, Iraq, taxes and even health care. And Kerry's ratings on personal attributes honesty, strong leadership, consistency, empathy and others have softened as well.
Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.
The bottom line has shifted only very subtly. Head-to-head, the Massachuestts senator has slipped from a slight lead in late June to a dead heat today, with 49 percent support for Bush and 48 percent for Kerry among registered voters. Including Ralph Nader, it's 48 percent-46 percent-3 percent.
No Pre-Convention Bounce
But perceptions on policy and personality are more important than horse-race standings at this stage, and there Kerry has work to do. He has a crucial chance to regain momentum as he accepts the Democratic nomination this week: Fewer than half of registered voters, 46 percent, say they have a good idea where he stands on the issues, a huge 28 points behind Bush. That represents opportunity, if Kerry can deliver a message that resonates.
And the public is listening. Not only is attention high, but 78 percent of registered voters call this an "especially important election," far more than said that in 2000 or 1996. Indeed, two-thirds say it's one of the single most important elections in their lifetimes.
Kerry's job is by no means easy. While some candidates have begun their "convention bounce" during the build-up to the event, even before their convention began, that has eluded Kerry. The past month's trend has not been to his advantage. And Bush's overall job approval rating appears to have stabilized, albeit at a tepid 50 percent.
Trust More to Handle Issues
Issue Now: Bush Now: Kerry Month Ago: Bush Month Ago: Kerry
Terrorism 55% 37 48 47
Taxes 49 43 41 53
Health Care 44 47 38 56
Iraq 52 40 49 47
Education 44 45 43 52
Economy 47 46 45 50
Iraq: Divisive Issue
An improving economy and the handover of authority in Iraq are among the likely factors influencing these assessments. So, too, is the attention focused on terrorism by the release of the Sept. 11 commission report last week. The nation's response to 9/11 has been Bush's finest hour in public approval; focus on it accrues to his advantage.
Probably the single most important advance for Bush on the issues in this poll is his rating for handling terrorism. Fifty-seven percent of Americans now approve, up from 50 percent last month. And registered voters trust Bush over Kerry to handle terrorism by 55 percent to 37 percent, compared with an even split, 48 percent to 47 percent, a month ago.
Among specific groups that are key to Kerry's chances, since June he has lost 13 points among women in trust to handle terrorism, 11 points among moderates and eight points among independents.
Trust to Handle Terrorism
Group Now: Bush Now: Kerry In June: Bush In June: Kerry
Women 46 43 40 56
Moderates 50 43 42 54
Independents 50 40 48 48
The public continues to divide evenly on whether the war in Iraq was worth fighting. But fewer than half, 42 percent, say the Bush administration "intentionally misled" the public in making its case for the war. And beyond Iraq, more say the United States is winning the war on terrorism rather than losing it, 51 percent to 34 percent.
What Matters Most
On the economy, public perceptions, while hardly enthusiastic, are their best (46 percent positive, 53 percent negative) in ABC/Post polls since July 2001. And Bush's approval rating for handling the economy, while not good, is better up eight points since March, to 47 percent. Economic sentiment was vastly more sour at this time in 1992, when Bush's father was on his way to losing a second term.
This President Bush does remain vulnerable on his economic performance; 41 percent of Americans say most people have gotten worse off financially since he took office, while just 15 percent say most people are better off. That "worse off" number, though, is down from a high of 52 percent last fall and it was worse still, 61 percent, in summer 1992.
Just more than a quarter of registered voters say the economy is the single most important issue in their vote for president; a fifth say Iraq and a fifth say terrorism. What's key is how their votes divide. Among those who say Iraq is most important, Kerry has maintained a wide lead. Among those who say it's terrorism, Bush's lead is even wider. In both cases these are unchanged since June.
It's among economy voters where change has occurred. In June they favored Kerry by a 17-point margin, 54 percent to 37 percent. Today that's dissolved to a dead heat.
Vote Preference Among Issue Groups
Most Important Issue Now: Bush Now: Kerry In June: Bush In June: Kerry
Economy (27%) 46 47 37 54
Iraq (21%) 30 63 33 60
Terrorism (20%) 79 17 76 20
Popularity Contests
There's also the optimism factor. Just 47 percent of registered voters are satisfied with the way things are going in this country, but many more 67 percent are optimistic about the year ahead. And more see Bush as an optimist (72 percent) than Kerry (55 percent). That makes it a tricky path for Kerry delineating the nation's problems, economic and otherwise, without sounding more negative than the public itself.
Attributes are as important as issues, and here Kerry has work to do as well. His advantage over Bush as the candidate who better "understands your problems" has shrunk to a virtually insignificant four points; it was 18 points last month. Last month it was Kerry +12 as more honest; now it's Bush +6. And it was Bush +5 on leadership; it's Bush +19 now. The Bush campaign seems to have been effective at drawing Kerry in a more negative personal light. The convention is his chance to build it back.
Candidate Attributes
Best Describes Now: Bush Now: Kerry Month Ago: Bush Month Ago: Kerry
Honest 46% 40 40 52
Consistent 64 24 60 34
Understands 42 46 37 55
Strong leader 55 36 50 45
Shares Your Values 49 43 46 48
Will Make the Country Safer 54 38 53 42
Also critical has been the Bush campaign's success driving up Kerry's overall "unfavorable" rating, by criticizing his policies and personality alike. Favorability is a basic measure of popularity. Since March, at the height of his primary victories, favorable views of Kerry have declined by six points and unfavorable views are up by 11 points. Bush's favorability rating, meanwhile, has gained six points, while his "unfavorable" score which still slightly exceeds Kerry's is little changed (+4).
Among others, Vice President Dick Cheney has a weak favorable-to-unfavorable rating of 43 percent to 41 percent, compared to John Edwards' 50 percent to 24 percent; luckily for Cheney very few voters base their vote on the vice-presidential nominee. Laura Bush tops the list in this poll with 66 percent to 12 percent favorability. Teresa Heinz Kerry is at a somewhat troublesome 27 percent to 26 percent, with nearly half the public yet to form an opinion of her. Independent candidate Nader has the worst ratio, 25 percent to 44 percent.
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