[Richard]

What if the President of Sudan is Arrested?
Glen Segell, CCC, Aug 2009
Part 2 of 2

So the old families and the favored families control such key sectors such as the military, the economy and even such matters as medicine. By this it is meant that if a person is from one of these families then it is a hereditary right to be accepted to study medicine. The quality of such education in economics and medicine, for example, is on par with Europe, often noted when students pursue graduate study abroad and excel in results. Many return to Sudan and even though politically it has been classified a failed state there are many aspects where this is not the case. For example Sudan successfully changed the currency of its 100 percent cash-based economy within a six month period in 2006; credit cards being outlawed both by Sharia law that does not permit a credit system and by the actions of international credit card companies (such as Visa and Mastercard) who adhere to the international embargo against Sudan.

Even if the entire family system of the President were to be eradicated upon his arrest by the ICC there are still other factors to consider. One of which is geo-political considerations associated with history and religion. The President, the Sudanese people at large and almost all Sudanese political parties see Sudan as the historical and natural link or bridge between Africa, the Middle East and Islam and have aimed to enhance this view. This case is based historically on the original Pharaohs coming from the land of Kush (today Sudan) who later moved along to the Nile to Mitzrahim (today Egypt). To be sure the President boasts that the Pyramids in Sudan predate those in Egypt by approximately 10,000 years. Geographically and historically, trade between Africa and the Middle East—including the slave trade—had routes through Sudan. Khartoum as the capital of the Sudan, which is a federal state consisting of 26 states, is also the confluence of the Blue Nile and the White Nile rivers. Sudan is also an ethnic and tribal extension of East to West Africa including Nigeria which is also a predominant Islamic state. It is highly likely that any subsequent leader of Sudan, given the possible available individuals, will continue this geo-political stance.

To further such geo-political attitudes and as part of the President's dictatorial legacy agenda he has chosen to make Khartoum a city of tranquility and a base for the aforementioned Islamic agenda. Notably Khartoum is a city with very low levels of crime, as all criminal elements are suppressed by the installation of fear, a rigid watch your neighbor policy, and a homogenate ethnic and family neighborhood policy. This is furthered through an extensive control of population movement through road blocks at entry points into Khartoum (and other cities) as well as a national ID card system enacted through street stop and searches. This is indicative of Sudan being a police state. Removal of this system with the removal of the President may result in a collapse of the federal system of the 26 states as well as collapse of law and order. Care would be needed to ensure that a situation doesn't arise similar to that which happened after the demise of Yugoslav President Josip Broz Tito and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

Inherent to such considerations of potential radicalization and anarchy is how the President has offered the city of Khartoum as a base for extending the goals of Islamization, where the policies and activities in Darfur are part and parcel of this. To be sure Al Qaeda is Arabic for The Base. Radicals such as Bin Laden have recognized this base in concept and in practice and have chosen to reside in it. Indeed Bin Laden also married one of Dr. Turabi's nieces as one of four wives permitted under Islamic law. Local opposition parties and their leaders, other regional state leaders and Islamic movements world-wide support the President's activities, enacted in the name of Islam, but this is also part and parcel of his desire to leave a dictatorial legacy.

So the bottom line of this viewpoint categorically states that arresting the President of Sudan is a desired goal given his atrocities, but in doing so the world should not expect any substantial or immediate changes in Sudan, and may well see a radicalization and even anarchy.

http://www.nps.edu/Academics/centers...gellAug09.html