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Originally Posted by Richard
For me, some worst case answers to that question are (1) a prolonged, concerted, and insidious attack on our and the world's economic systems, developing a deep-seated and irreversible mistrust in and anger toward's the major government's and monetary systems, or (2) a blinding flash of light from an unidentifiable source over a - e.g. - San Antonio ("Remember the Alamo!") or any major city at 0845 in the morning during the daily rush to school and work. A pandemic could also be ugly, but I personally worry less about that - naively, perhaps - because such fears have seldom panned out as predicted for a myriad of reasons.
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San Antonio? What did we ever do to deserve that?
Back in 1980 or so, I met a gentleman who knew quite a lot about biochemistry and related matters; in fact, his dissertation adviser had missed out on a Nobel by a narrow margin. We would sit and eat chips with salsa while discussing get rich quick schemes. (Legal get rich schemes, I might add). Some of the things we discussed cause me to believe that a bio-weapons attack should be an area to be considered.
But I really don't think the problem will be something organized by a foreign state, or even a group such as Al Qaeda. Instead, it may be a result of a combination of resource depletion and population overshoot. Whether we look at Italy, facing migration from Africa, or the U.S. with migrations from Mexico and points south, the potential problem remains the same.
If - admittedly, quite a big if - oil proves to be the central linchpin of the global economy I believe it is - then depletion may cause sharp declines in the availability of food, and hence the twin problems of a breakdown of government and large numbers of desperate people who will do whatever is needed to survive.
How one fights that situation is problematic. What one does with wave after wave of desperate humans who will take any risk may present the defining problem of the upcoming decades. And it may extend in time for the remainder of this century.
Now all of this connects with Islam - because many Islamic states have large populations, rapid growth, and resources that have been strained to the limit and beyond. Not only could this represent a ripe ground for recruiting terrorists in the accepted sense, but it also represents (IMO) a possibility for the mass migrations mentioned earlier. I think we must ask ourselves what happens if such states as Pakistan or Indonesia falter - what will their populations do? And how do we fight it?
At least Al Qaeda has a discernible leadership. But what if the opposing force no longer has a leadership?
Perhaps Somalia is a model of the future. The situation in that small area is disrupting much. What happens of the Somalian condition spreads - and spreads a lot? (rhetorical questions, BTW).