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Originally Posted by Richard
In addition to what others have stated, I don't understand how anyone can make such a prediction and use these assumptions in his reasoning:
"...doesn't credit any policies to combat terrorism, just demographics."
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Sir, perhaps he is extrapolating from the idea that crimes are predominantly caused by the young. I notice the following abstract that also suggests that the underlying premise of a connection between youth and crime may be flawed.
Abstract: The dominant position in criminology is that crime peaks in the late teens and early 20s, and declines thereafter. This is almost always based on arrest rates, and is subject to selection bias. Younger criminals might be more reckless and less adept at escaping arrest than older criminals. The most active criminals might be less likely to be apprehended and to continue their careers longer. This study addresses the issue directly by using state UCR crime category and Census age distribution data in panel analysis over 35 years. There is the expected peak relationsip for the late teens and early 20s, but for most crimes there is also an equally strong relationship for the early 30's. This suggests the individual level studies are exaggerating the crime decline with age, perhaps because the subjects are relatively minor criminals.
LINK
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Originally Posted by Peregrino
To paraphrase - "when all you know is hammers, every solution set can be defined with nails". Is this guy a Muslim?
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Sir, his name, Mr. Ajay Singh Kapur, seems to indicate Northern Indian descent, although I don't suppose that precludes Muslim affiliation.
LINK. However, he offers surprisingly few details about himself; many people at that level offer a biographical sketch, but that does not seem to be the case with Mr. Kapur. It is also possible he wishes to offer a bullish scenario in order to promote his business interests.
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Originally Posted by SF_BHT
I agree to a point but you have to look at this in a historical view. They were allowed to build up because governments around the world would not go after then and they were also used as a tool for many governments to advance their national agendas.
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Sir, thank you for your thoughts. Recent events in the securities markets add a strong emphasis to what you say here; an article in Barron's, back in 1995 (as I recall) predicted much of what we are experiencing right now. It is ironic that no one has mentioned it; and yet, it was one of those rare instances of genuine foresight. This is an example of our own society's tendency to have a short time horizon. The long-term perspectives you mention are an insight that I had not considered with regard to the Islamic mindset.
Again, thank you all for sharing your perceptions.