In addition to what others have stated, I don't understand how anyone can make such a prediction and use these assumptions in his reasoning:
"
...doesn't credit any policies to combat terrorism, just demographics."
"
I foresee Afghanistan and Pakistan to remain the epicenter of violence for some time to come."...which, as we all know, does not limit their activities solely to those countries, regions, or continents.
I think this guy's thesis needs a re-do.
Richard's $.02