Quote:
Originally Posted by LongRange27
I'm not missing your point, you're missing mine. Of course the Joint Chiefs and Congress would have a fit if we tried to invade Iran right now. But if we had intel that bin Laden was in Iran before we hit Iraq, I guarantee everybody and their brother would have been down to turn Tehran into a dustbowl.
You're throwing ideas out, but you aren't backing it up with any real evidence or even theory. If Ahmadinejad didn't know about harboring bin Laden, do you know who would be responsible for such an operation? The Quds. They are Iran's version of SF/CIA types, and they are not going to defy their government and take the political risks of harboring the most wanted man in the world. Despite how much trash Iran talks, they do not want to be invaded. It is simply a power play to put themselves in the spotlight and show the rest of the Middle East that since Saddam is gone, Iran is the strongest country in the region now, which they are.
In my opinion, bin Laden is moving to and from secure locations in the NWFP, North and South Waziristan, and Peshawar, Pakistan. Our spying capabilities our extremely limited in those areas, especially with him on the move. Obviously, you didn't read the article I posted.
This is where I think he is: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/ma...akistan-t.html |
The premise of the question of this thread pertains to where OBL is now. I have read from more reputable sources than the NYT that elements of Al Qaeda where allowed to go into Iran after we went into Afghanistan. Even if he went into Iran soon after 9/11, there was no way we were going into Iran. There was a big difference in being able to go into Afghanistan, which had a history of being a brutal failed state and hosting the OBL gang for years and Iraq, which had dozens of UN resolutions against them and the intelligence pointed to them having an aggressive interests in WMDs which was just enough to get Congress and some of our allies to support it. You might be over estimating Ahmadinejad's power as well as his control over their military and covert operations.
Regardless, the question in where is OBL. I say if he is not dead then he could very well be in Iran considering the close proximity and that they are the only country in the Middle East in a position to do so. Iran fears Israel more than us.
You suggest he is still in the Waziristan/Peshawar region. He very well could be and that is a very educated and reasonable suggestion. However, I think he knows very well we would not hesitate to strike him by either air or land if we found out where he was in that area or anywhere in Pakistan. Some reported 30 or so air strikes and possible a few black helicopters being inserted on that side of the fence since Aug 2008 make that a hot AO in my opinion. I don't think he has the balls to risk staying there but you could certainly be correct.