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Originally Posted by D9
Maybe. The Ku Klux Klan is around today in the US but instead of the 5 million member centrally controlled organization it once was, it is various bubbas in their garages who for the most part can't kick their meth habits, much less organize a cross-burning. Even if Chavez does continue his sponsorship, and I don't disagree that he will, he will have to make it less overt and this can ONLY pay dividends.
I see fragmentation and decentralization in the near (5 yr) future for the FARC. I could be wrong. But I think it will go this way and independently they will be marginalized and picked off by the gov't - assuming a Uribe style gov persists there. I'm not sure SECDEF Santos will be up to the task but we'll see. I'm personally hoping the "World Democracy" crowd gets shocked and Uribe pulls a third term.
The problem with a decentralized FARC is that the groups that are the strongest, in the South and East (coca territory), have not been the groups suffering the setbacks recently experienced on the various fronts. Karina and Rios were from Antioquia and this has been a traditionally less friendly and profitable area for the G. We'll see if the limited successes against Southern and Eastern fronts can be improved upon with fragmentation, but at this point I see fragmentation as an inevitability.
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Chavez will continue to provide FARC with the most militarily significant resource; a safe haven where it's troops can R&R and train without COL MIL interference.
Historically FARC has operated in a decentralized manner and in fact, it wasn't until the mid to late 90s where they were able to coordinate operations on a strategic scale. They only operated at that level for about 6-7 year and haven't since Pastrana finally realized he was played the fool and went back into the DMZ.
Uribe will not get a 3rd term. Also there is no military or LE solution to the "total defeat" of FARC. There are too many other factors which impact their ability to function.