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IMHO, it is in the best interest of AQ to present UBL as being alive.
"See the great US can not catch one man, they can not kill one man, Allah is with us."
Even the anti-war critics recite the mantra, "The Great US can not catch one man, WTH?" Which adds to micro managing the war, "See Bush is incompetence, he can not catch UBL", "Bush lied about AQ, or he would be chasing UBL." AQ and the anti-war crowd would probably both gain if more resources were diverted to find UBL.
I think the answer lies partially in the anti-war movement on the seeing the benefits of keeping UBL "alive". For all practical purpose UBL is out of the game either way.
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