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The voice in the video was reported as "confirmed." Still, your point is valid. The last time he was seen moving on tape was October 2004 (so 33 months or so). Since then its been all audio messages (none in 2005, 4 in 2006, none since).
Certainly its possible he's dead, but he's gone long periods between statements before so I think Occam's Razor is more on the side of "alive and waiting."
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The strength of a nation is its knowledge. -Welsh Proverb
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