|
At a recent conference in Jordan, King Abdullah noted that of an Arab population of 325 million, over 200 million are under the age of 24. The Arab world enjoyed an immense baby boom in the 1980s and 1990s.
Saudi Arabia's population has more than doubled since the mid-1980s. So has that of Jordan, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. Syria's by 80-90%. Bahrain's has increased by about 67%. Egypt's has increased by more than 60%. Both Algeria's and Morocco's have also increased by more than 50%. Same goes for Lebanon.
Despite all the wars and other problems, Iraq's population has increased by about 80% since 1985.
By way of contrast, the U.S. population has increased by about 25% in that period. Europe's population increased by 5% between 1980 and 2005. France and the Netherlands are among the few Western European countries with relatively robust growth (about 12-15%) in that period, and much of that is due to immigration, mainly from Muslim and Arab countries. Germany's and Russia's populations are falling.
The greatest source of recruitment for terrorist groups and militias are among these millions of young Arabs with few prospects. They can move quickly up the ladder in these organizations, not just because their superiors find themselves on the wrong end of a JDAM or a rifle bullet, but because these organizations, especially al-Sadr's "Mahdi Army", are effectively little different from street gangs with ideological pretensions.
Compare another gang with ideological pretensions: Bobby Seale was a relatively old 30 when he co-founded the Black Panther Party with Huey P. Newton, who was 24. H. Rap Brown was 25 when he became "Justice Minister" of the Black Panthers. Stokely Carmichael was 27 when he became honorary "Prime Minister" of the Black Panthers. Geronimo Pratt was the 21-year old "Minister of Defense". Malik Rahim (Donald Guyton) was 22 when he tried to set up the Louisiana chapter of the Black Panther Party. Eldridge Cleaver, 31 when he became "Minister of Information", seems like the old man of the group.
By the way, Muqtada al-Sadr himself is only 33. His main problems with the Shi'ite hierarchy have come from the fact that he is viewed as little more than a thug and punk kid trading on his father's venerated name.
|