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(continued)
I'm glad the topic of the Balkans wars came up. I was going there next.
Believe it or not the major steps to stabilize Iraq have already taken place. Much like the Serbia/Kosovo war the. The most important of these being the removal of an oppressive dictator (Slobodan/Saddam). An oppressive and abosolute figure who is both ruthless and unremoreseful will cause major problems as long as they remain in power. During the Kosovo war much of the blood shed was halted one Milosovic was arrested. Yet I must conceid that the situation in iraq is extreemly unique. The involvement of many individual cells/groups, each independent in leadership, yet all pulling for supremacy make the Iraq war extremely unique. We've seen this situation before in Somalia with a bunch of independent warlords seeking control over the people and resources.
Our experience in Somalia led to a drastic change in our approach to foreign policy as a nation. It is a large reason we didn't play as large a role in the Serbian conflict as we could have. During both Clinton administrations, foreign policy was handled with a sort of arms length approach. This is largely responsible for the skepticism most individuals have concerning the Iraq War. Most view the war as an impossible catch 22, for which no solution exist.
But there is a way to win this conflict. Although unresolved, the Serbian conflict has stabilized. It has been stabilized by allowing Kosovo to function as it's own sovreignty. Although it has not been recognized as it's own government it has function independently with it's own laws, loose government, and language, thereby making it a de facto sovreignty. This situation is extreemly analagous to the current situation witht he Kurds. I am aware that the forming a separate government could potentially cause problems. But for the Kurds this point is moot. Currently both in Turkey and Iran, the Kurds experience poverty, and subjugation due to government oppression. In both countries a massive Kurdish depopulation has been happening for years. While it is true the Iranians and Kurds don't want the Kurds to have a seperate state, it must be mentioned that they don't want to have to give up any of their land for the Kurds to occupy. If the Kurds were to occupy a piece of land outside Iranian or Turkish borders (the current situation in Iraq) there would be no problem.
Except in Iraq, which is where this conversation comes full circle. While I have outlined how the Shia and the Sunni can be brought to the negotiating table (international involvement and diplomacy (which reports have indicated is bound to happen)) I have yet to mention how these factions will interact with eachother.
The only way we can even begin diplomatic negotiations is to remove the heads of the factions. This is current phase of the iraq war. So long as extreemist are able to get ahold of young impressionable males, brain wash them with half truths, misinterpreted religion, and false promises, we will be unable to unify the rivaling factions in Iraq. Without organization the individuals will begin to seek guidance. This will be provided through rule law, security, and economic stability, because lets face it, your less likely to blow yourself up in a suicide attack when you have a job, security, and a reasonably bright future ahead of you. All these processes are currently happening in Iraq. This is what most people don't realize. Although progress has happened slower than most people would like, the administration has taken to proper steps toward reaching thier goal creating a stable sovreign state.
In the end, we have to remember "Rome wasn't built in a day" and neither will Iraq. By allowing the Kurds their own seperate de facto state whether it be recongnized or not has already gone a long way toward stabilizing Iraq much like it did in Kosovo. Conversly allowing the same for the Shia and Sunni tribes could be detrimental. The approach must be multifaceted, and dynamic. Many things have to happen such a removing faction leaders, brining other countries to the negotiations to promote letitimacy, and establishing a clear cooperative economic system which doesn't depend on solely on oil will go a long way toward reaching a resolution. Then and only then, will we be able to tell if dividing lines can be drawn for these two groups and in what way they can be drawn.
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