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IMO the problem with the “moderate Arabs” and or the “moderate islamist” is they are not in power and never will be in power especially if we leave them to the “free range” insurgents/terrorists/jihadists etc.
Once we leave these free range jihadists will change their TTP’s. They will continue to be free range jihadists until they realize they must band together and form larger tribes or small armies and target the C&C of their tribal enemies. And the world will see a level of brutality not anticipated by the west. It’s going to be a race to be the king of the hill and only the strongest will win.
And, for a short time, we (the United States) will see a terrorist “reprieve” and the only reason why will be they are currently engaged in the struggle for their own tribal dominance. (Our own democrats will say this reprieve/peace is because of them and their current rule of the US Gov.)
When we leave certain middle eastern islamic countries will fund, equip, train and attempt to command their tribal cronies in Iraq. IMO iran and a few other ME countries have most likely already set up their own guerrilla networks and once we leave they will infiltrate iraq in a bid to take control through their “tribe” of choice. They are already doing just that but we are not allowing the strings of the free range jihadists to be tugged/influenced too greatly by any one country.
Once we leave and our own “countrymen” tell the world we failed in our attempt to set free the people of iraq we lose credibility/authority on a global scale. Democracy also loses credibility. The message will be that the USA does not finish what it starts and democracy doesn’t work for everyone will be the new islamic jihadists /middle eastern battle cry.
It’s going to be a mess for a few years, maybe less depending on the level of brutality employed. Once the dust settles in the "New" iraq the islamist jihadists will once again make plans to target the west and this time with a vengeance.
There will not be one Iraqi that has not been brutalized by the 5-7 years of war and once “united” (and I use that term loosely) they will speak with one voice. That voice will be one of extreme hate for the United States and its allies. I have little doubt that the reigning regime will be the “moderate islamists” or moderate anything.
If we do not stay and finish this our children’s children will be the ones paying a heavy price. The next time the jihadists attack it will not be a few thousand dead……
Team Sergeant
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"The Spartans do not ask how many are the enemy, but where they are."
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