Again, read my analysis, billions of small video devices, no new movies of ubl in years. He's dead.
I'm not the only one that thinks the coward osama bin laden is dead. There was a lot of debate concerning the audio tape and that it was made by one of his sons.
(failing to predict the USSR's implosion, notwithstanding. )
You may want to add the the failure to predict the invasion of Kuwait to your list.
http://muller.lbl.gov/TRessays/24-Voice_of_Osama.htm
3. The tape was a recording of one of Osama bin Laden's sons, who was deliberately trying to sound like his father. This is, in my mind, the most likely hypothesis.
Here is my scenario:
Osama bin Laden was killed at Tora Bora -- or his dialysis machine was destroyed and he died shortly afterwards. The strongest evidence for this is the absence of new videos. Al Qaeda fears that news of his death will shock and discourage many of its supporters. There is no other leader who can hold together this diverse and contentious organization, so they believe that they need to keep the news secret. The initial tapes they released were old recordings of former speeches. But many supporters were concerned. They, like me, noticed the absence of videos, and of speeches with clear date indicators. Al Qaeda knew a video counterfeit would be detected, but they noticed that Saad sounded a lot like his father. They had him listen to his father's speeches, and practice enunciating them with a similar style. It took many attempts, but Saad's voice on the final tape was good enough to deceive not only al Qaeda's foreign legions, but even some analysts at the CIA.
And if my personal experience is indicative, the tapes may even have fooled one or more of Osama bin Laden's wives.
Richard A. Muller, a 1982 MacArthur Fellow, is a physics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, where he teaches a course called 'Physics for Future Presidents.' Since 1972, he has been a Jason consultant on U.S. national security.