Quote:
Originally posted by NousDefionsDoc
I'm not so sure I agree with this.
AQ needs a base now that they don't have 'Stan and the Pakis are in the tribal areas. Their last success was in 'Stan while it was in a state of chaos (like Iraq is now).
How about this - they made a deal with that Muslim cleric that didn't want to sign the constitution and his group will be the next Taliban after they isolate the US in Iraq?
I do agree about the polls and we all know about polls in general.
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For AQ, Grand Ayatullah Sistani is almost as much of an infidel as George Bush is. The AQ-linked groups in Iraq have been attacking his allies as well as Westerners (remember the Zarqawi memo). Alliances of convenience with certain Shi'ites and Ba'athists are of course likely, but Sistani isn't one. Sistani's goals are two-fold: (i) to ensure that the Shi'a come out at the top of the Iraqi heap and that any balance of power system doesn't work to allow the Sunni Arab minority to dominate the Shi'ite majority again, and (ii) to ensure that Islam remains the main source of law and that religious judges such as himself are its interpreters (he could care less if the legislative branch is dominated by more secularly-minded people; the judiciary is his goal).
Regarding scouting for new AQ bases of operations, talk to 3rd Group. There are a few places not too far from Spain that have become important in recent months.
In the long run, Iraqi chaos does work to AQ's advantage. Arabs stick out much less in Baqubah than they do in Timbuktu, Mogadishu or Khost. I am not trying to completely discount the Spain/Iraq connection. It is certainly a major component. But I am worried about overemphasizing it for two reasons: (i) it falsely encourages those like the Spanish elecorate who think that breaking from the coalition will make them safer and (ii) it diverts attention away from other likely targets who did not support the coalition. Turkey and Morocco were not part of the OIF coalition (at least actively), but still were attacked. One of the targets in Morocco was Belgian, and Belgium is the worst ankle-biter of the axis of weasels. The attacks in Tunis were against Jews, always a popular target, but German tourists were the main victims. As noted, Greece remains a likely target because of the high profile of the Olympics. And France is certainly high on the list. Domestically it has cracked down on Islamist attempts to radicalize the Muslim population, and French SOF are currently active in the anti-AQ operations along the Afghan-Pak border.
Going back to the original premise, though, although AQ's MO is not to do the same thing twice, the following OIF coalition members have elections in the next few months:
El Salvador - 21 March presidential election
Georgia - 28 March parliamentary elections
Thailand - March senate elections
Slovakia - 3 & 17 April presidential election
Macedonia - 14 April presidential election
South Korea - 15 April parliamentary elections
Philippines - 10 May presidential, parliamentary and senate elections
Dominican Republic - 16 May presidential election
Japan - July senate elections
Mongolia - July parliamentary elections
Lithuania - October parliamentary elections
Ukraine - October presidential election
US - 2 November
Australia - November parliamentary and senate elections
Czech Republic - November senate elections
Romania - November/December presidential, parliamentary and senate elections
Non-OIF coalition members with terrorism problems and upcoming elections in 2004 include Malaysia, Indonesia, India, the European Parliament, Afghanistan, Lebanon, France, Ireland and Tunisia.