Iraq - Why Unrest Now?
 

Question - with the date of 30 June set as a hard date by POTUS publically, why are the factions going to the mats now, with less than 3 months to go? Why not wait and see how it plays out, then if not satisfied call for terrorism?

Whoever is planning to take over can't do it until the US is gone and the fastest way to get rid of the US is play along.

It's not about Iraq, and it's not about taking over. It's about keeping US troops where they can be attacked.

So its simply in order to facilitate killing troops?

Re: Iraq - Why Unrest Now?
 

It seems to be a real hard question to answer if you really think about it.

There seems to be no real reasoning behind stirring up all this shit now, other than to kill US troops. It must be very apperant to the various factions in Iraq (former regime elements, local militias, and terroists) that we will not leave until the job is done, which will be many years down the road.

It's not like we are pulling our troops out on June 30th. We'll still be responsible for the security of the country.

Sounds like some of these groups may have exposed themselves and intentions a little too early....Hopefully we can take advantage of it.

Maybe its just taken this long logistically to get everything and everyone who are willing to fight in country. From what I have been hearing on the news the Marines are capturing foreign fighters from Iran, Syria, Egypt...

I have read reports that the guerrilla's are predominantly imports
from Syria and Iran.

What I can't figure out is why the Sunni's are collaborating
with the Shiite's. From everything I have read, the Sunni's
have strong input with the government members selected
and the Shiite's don’t. So why would the Sunni's take action
at this time?

Could it have something to do with the Kurds in the north?
They recently protested and joined their Kurdish counter-parts
in Syria. Iran is in flux and the Shiite's are losing their hold,
could it be driven by Iran and Syria not wanting the Kurds to get stronger? I believe the protesting occurred late March.

Just my .02

Edited to say: After reading more of this thread of NDD's, I realize I am not qualified to even have an opinion.

Holly

A news report mentioned that the Japanese hostages were to be released after one of the insurgent religious leaders ordered it. Perhaps all of this is simply a show of force by the various religious leaders to show who rules Iraq? Such a show while the US et al. were still in town may be aimed to provoke the US to conceed more power to the Mullahs constitutionally, thereby securing themselves power in a 'new Iraq'. This method would be instead of seizing power unconstitutionally after the US departs, which would mean that the new govt. would lack global legitimacy, be rife with power struggles, and may cause the US to return?

Just trying to think outside of the box, I guess.

Solid

That old saying, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" comes to mind.

"With their quasi-independence secure, Iraqi Kurds have begun to be the vanguard of Kurdish rights across the Middle East. This move poses serious potential problems for the United States in Iraq, and in U.S. dealings with Damascus, Ankara and Tehran.

The Kurds are the world's largest ethnic group without a state. The vast majority live in a region that spans northern Iraq, southeastern Syria, northwestern Iran and southeastern Turkey."

Just to follow up on my point, this is the comment which got
my attention from Stratfor a few weeks ago. This is the
only reason I can think of as to why the Sunni's and Shiite's
would join forces.

Respectfully submitted.

I believe the violence perpetrated by the Shiites is a power play amongst themselves. Sadr is a minor Cleric with Iranian backing trying to ruffle Sistani's feathers.

I'm listening. The Kurds are Sunnis are they not, religiously speaking?

My understanding is that the Iraqi Kurds are not as tight with the Iranian ones?

I am getting rumors that the Japanese thing may have been staged by the victims. Either as a PR stunt to show the HTs as not such bad guys or something went wrong with a plan to get publicity. Nothing definite yet.

Solid, I'm digging ya'. Another idea - it may be to provoke retaliations and repression by the US-led IPG for agit-prop as well.

Ok, but what about the Sunnis?

The warmer spring weather is making them itchy. :)

Shooting from the hip I'd say the higher the body count the better Kerry's chance for election, also maybe because there are many troop rotations happening now. Easier to hit us coming into country(?).

Re: Iraq - Why Unrest Now?
 

My understanding is that we are handing over only some governmental functions in June. We're not leaving in June. Am I wrong?