Team Sergeant,
I think perhaps you under estimate the power of the radical left in England. Blair is already shaky at best. We'll see soon enough won't we? I bet it doesn't take them long to strike after the success in Spain.

Actually, polls showed opposition in almost every country in Europe. But bear in mind that support for US policy in Iraq is hardly the sine qua non for being a terrorist target. For Spain, the Iraq policy and its unpopularity in Spain was only one component. It was Spanish policy from 1492 to 2002 that made Spain a target, and not just from 2002 to 2004. Spain was also a target of convenience. With the relative ease of smuggling stuff from Morocco, the ability to hide among the local Muslim population and the contacts with home-grown ETA terrorists, Spain presented opportunities that other countries did not.

Since 9-11, most of the large terrorist attacks and attempted attacks had been in non-Western countries - Indonesia, Pakistan, Iraq, Turkey, Morocco, Yemen, Kenya, Russia - where security measures were not as good as in the Western world. As time went by, even the Western countries security measures relaxed somewhat. The NY National Guard disappeared from the subways, the Gendarmerie Nationale wasn't as visible around the Eiffel Tower, and so forth. Madrid was first, but it could just as easily have happened in Milan or Athens, and Italian support in Iraq or Greek opposition to US policy would make no difference.

To the extent al-Qa'ida is in a position to plan high-profile large-scale attacks, the Athens Olympics remains a major target, but of course that is one area where extensive security measures are being taken.

As noted, the most immediate threat may be in Afghanistan or northern Iraq, timed with Nauroz to provoke chaos and internecine violence. In the longer term, the Athens Olympics and the US elections remain high-profile targets. But a Madrid-style attack is just as likely in Istanbul or Warsaw as in Milan or Manchester.

BTW, lost in some of the recent coverage of Madrid and other fronts in the war on terror was this: Saudi security forces killed two more people on their al-Qa'ida most wanted list in a gun battle in Riyadh. One of the two was Khalid 'Ali bin Hajj, A Yemeni reportedly head of al-Qa'ida operations in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf region.

Chief of Al-Qaeda's Arabian Peninsula Operations Killed

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi security forces killed two militants,
including one considered Al-Qaeda's chief of operations on the
Arabian Peninsula, in a shootout in the capital of Riyadh on
Monday, U.S. and Saudi officials told the Associated Press.

A Saudi Interior Ministry statement said the two were killed in
the al-Nasseem neighborhood, in eastern Riyadh, in an exchange
of fire with security forces on Monday afternoon.

Abu Hazim al-Sha'ir, a Yemeni believed to be about 30, was the
senior Al-Qaeda figure in the region, a U.S. counterterrorism
official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. The
official said his death represented a "major, very significant
blow" to Al-Qaeda. "This guy was involved in ongoing terrorist
planning and plotting," the official added.

The Saudi Interior Ministry identified the dead as Khaled Ali
Haj, a Yemeni,and Ibrahim bin Abdul-Aziz bin Mohammed al-Mezeini,
a Saudi. Haj is another named used by Abu Hazim, according to
the U.S. counterterrorism official.


Suspicious Packages Sent to Saudi Embassy in London

UNITED KINGDOM: British police said Monday they were examining
four "suspicious" packages sent to diplomatic premises in
London, as the Saudi embassy revealed that it had received an
envelope containing white powder.

In a statement, the embassy said: "A closed envelope arrived
at the embassy this morning containing white powder. The
embassy contacted the British authorities who dealt with
the matter on the spot."

Scotland Yard has not revealed any more details about the
discovery or what the white powder was.

Yes I quite aware of Blair's standing, but we're talking about Brits. (not frenchmen) They will fight just to uphold the Queens honor. They have a very good sense of the moral right. Remember these are the people that were ready to do battle with hitler and Germany alone if necessary.
No, if an large scale event were to take place on their soil it would be more trouble for the terrorists. Easier to pick on small countries with no backbone, make them all withdrawal then go after the big guys. Especially if world opinion is on your side!!!

Being the pessimist I am, I expected Italy to cave like Spain after the attack on the Carabinieri headquarters in an-Nasiriyah. But the opposite happened. Italy experienced an outpouring of patriotism. An opinion poll in La Repubblica in the week after the attack showed only about 1/5th supporting pulling out of Iraq.

I'm not so sure I agree with this.

AQ needs a base now that they don't have 'Stan and the Pakis are in the tribal areas. Their last success was in 'Stan while it was in a state of chaos (like Iraq is now).

How about this - they made a deal with that Muslim cleric that didn't want to sign the constitution and his group will be the next Taliban after they isolate the US in Iraq?

I do agree about the polls and we all know about polls in general.

Anybody still think ETA was involved?

Yes

I should have said other than you. You probably think McVeigh and Jimmy Hoffa were involved too. LOL

No, they're both dead. I'm not a conspiracy theorist.

I'm not an expert but...

The explosives, while apparently not stolen or missing from Spain, were manufactured there. The detonators don't tell me anything, because they all learned that cell phone crap from the IRA probably.

I think the common link with all these groups is the training they did a few years ago in the ME. And I don't think one group is going to do an op in another group's AO without consulting with them. I don't think ETA did it, I think they allowed and maybe supported it.

ETA and the IRA have worked Colombia, and they all sent people to the ME.

For AQ, Grand Ayatullah Sistani is almost as much of an infidel as George Bush is. The AQ-linked groups in Iraq have been attacking his allies as well as Westerners (remember the Zarqawi memo). Alliances of convenience with certain Shi'ites and Ba'athists are of course likely, but Sistani isn't one. Sistani's goals are two-fold: (i) to ensure that the Shi'a come out at the top of the Iraqi heap and that any balance of power system doesn't work to allow the Sunni Arab minority to dominate the Shi'ite majority again, and (ii) to ensure that Islam remains the main source of law and that religious judges such as himself are its interpreters (he could care less if the legislative branch is dominated by more secularly-minded people; the judiciary is his goal).

Regarding scouting for new AQ bases of operations, talk to 3rd Group. There are a few places not too far from Spain that have become important in recent months.

In the long run, Iraqi chaos does work to AQ's advantage. Arabs stick out much less in Baqubah than they do in Timbuktu, Mogadishu or Khost. I am not trying to completely discount the Spain/Iraq connection. It is certainly a major component. But I am worried about overemphasizing it for two reasons: (i) it falsely encourages those like the Spanish elecorate who think that breaking from the coalition will make them safer and (ii) it diverts attention away from other likely targets who did not support the coalition. Turkey and Morocco were not part of the OIF coalition (at least actively), but still were attacked. One of the targets in Morocco was Belgian, and Belgium is the worst ankle-biter of the axis of weasels. The attacks in Tunis were against Jews, always a popular target, but German tourists were the main victims. As noted, Greece remains a likely target because of the high profile of the Olympics. And France is certainly high on the list. Domestically it has cracked down on Islamist attempts to radicalize the Muslim population, and French SOF are currently active in the anti-AQ operations along the Afghan-Pak border.

Going back to the original premise, though, although AQ's MO is not to do the same thing twice, the following OIF coalition members have elections in the next few months:

El Salvador - 21 March presidential election
Georgia - 28 March parliamentary elections
Thailand - March senate elections
Slovakia - 3 & 17 April presidential election
Macedonia - 14 April presidential election
South Korea - 15 April parliamentary elections
Philippines - 10 May presidential, parliamentary and senate elections
Dominican Republic - 16 May presidential election
Japan - July senate elections
Mongolia - July parliamentary elections
Lithuania - October parliamentary elections
Ukraine - October presidential election
US - 2 November
Australia - November parliamentary and senate elections
Czech Republic - November senate elections
Romania - November/December presidential, parliamentary and senate elections

Non-OIF coalition members with terrorism problems and upcoming elections in 2004 include Malaysia, Indonesia, India, the European Parliament, Afghanistan, Lebanon, France, Ireland and Tunisia.

Well, you could be right. Interesting discussion. I really wish I knew more about that part of the world sometimes, but it passes quickly.:cool:

I am with NDD on this one.

If not the trigger pullers, I think that ETA provided support on this op.

NDD, you have email.

TR

French police officials stated on 15 March 2004 that bomb disposal experts safely defused two explosive devices at a hotel complex being constructed in the Bidarray area in the Basque region on 14 March 2004. The devices consisted of two gas canisters containing 29 lb/13 kg of explosives each. Explosives resembled those that the Basque separatist group ETA has used in the past. No one has claimed responsibility for the attempted attack.

Spanish police and counterterrorism officers on 16 March 2004 announced that they have identified six potential suspects in the 11 March 2004 Madrid train bombing. The suspects are described as Moroccan men. Officials currently have one suspect in custody. The others remain at large at this time. Officials have also confirmed that a videotape discovered after the bombings, in which al-Qaeda claims responsibility for the attack, is authentic. Authorities are continuing to search for more suspects.