Professional Soldiers ® - Afghanistan's Misguided Economy

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Vietnam is a lot like China. The government is communist but the society is capitalistic. The Viets are very ambitious and quite a few international companies have facilities in Vietnam. The have a sizeable, literate and skilled labor force that works for a wage that allows the companies to be competetive.

If you ever get out here to So Cal, I will take you for pho in Little Saigon. You will be amazed at the number of businesses and growth here. And unlike many cultures, they are assimilating quite well. Their children do very well in schools, they are involved in local and national politics, one is in the House of Representatives.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flagg (Post 540308)

I believe he previously ran for president at the last election and polled quite poorly(like 1% poorly IIRC).

Interestingly enough his brother Hashmat Ghani is the leader of the Kuchis and was also a candidate in the 2014 election, but since Hashmat holds US citizenship is unable to run(or so I'm told my peers who have met him).

Hashmat has had a long and interesting relationship with the US and seems like a pretty switched on and politically/economically/tribally savvy(internally and externally) individual.

I get the sense that Ashraf is an academic without influence/control over any tribal groups unless it is by proxy through his brother's control of the Kuchis and a coalition of others.

I'm guessing he is unlikely to poll any higher than single digits and wonder why his brother Hashmat was originally running in opposition to Ashraf.

My understanding of Afghan politics is extremely limited and am happy to defer to those with a better understanding.

It's simply a very lucky coincidence that between my two closest peers and myself working in Afghan on and off the last 1-2 years we've had some direct run ins with a number of the 2014 candidates/players.

I seriously wonder how it's all going to work and hold together when the strongest candidate will probably be lucky to pull 30%(Abdullah Abdullah).

Hopefully a weak federal and strong provincial system will eventually evolve(and be recognized as such) without too much bloodshed.

For the record, I offer my opinion for free....and as such....is probably worth less than what you paid to read it! So caveat emptor ;)

I ever knew Hashmat Ghani is the leader of the Kuchis , nor Ashraf's brother. That is something I would be looking into the Linkage behind it all.

In your observations in running into them. Any play out to being real, or just the typically Afghan. Just as any one running in politics in America is. Oh yeah TWO FACED.

Love to hear your insights.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MtnGoat (Post 540399)

Cheers.....

To be honest.....I only know just enough to be dangerous to myself and others....so be warned! ;)

My personal interaction, and the interaction of my two good mates, with the candidates was limited.

With the exception of meeting with Habiba Surabi(female former governor of Bamyan), I just happened to be at the right place/time to develop some very superficial anecdotal opinions about the rest.

I would view Hashmat as a quite savvy businessman, and while he doesn't have the most flattering things to say about some Americans who possess influence/control over policy in the region without the wisdom to back it up, I think his role as a political powerbroker is net positive for the US/west.

I also get the sense he operates as aboveboard as possible in light of the local environment.

It sounds like Ashraf may be entering an alliance with Dostum...another powerbroker for the Tajiks.

If Kuchis and Tajiks were aligned as a single voting block I could imagine decent polling numbers, but I'd guess not enough to make it on the very short list.

But it would be of great value in doing backchannel deals throwing support behind runoff election candidates.

If it were me.....I'd less prefer being President than a kingmaker in the shadows.

What do the kingmakers want to achieve for their ethnic voting blocks and for themselves?

In closing, I only know enough to know I don't know much at all when it comes to Afghan politics.

And I hope when I'm up there briefly around the elections that the crazy is kept to a minimum.